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2013セントラルリーグ順位予想

本日から「超激辛NPBコラム」と評してブログを始めさせて頂きます
Gファン目線なので他球団ファンの方は不快な思いをするかもしれませんが
御了承の上で閲覧して頂けたら幸いです
皆様宜しくお願いいたします
いきなりですが2013セ・リーグ順位予想は以下のとおりです
1位 読売ジャイアンツ
2位 東京ヤクルトスワローズ
3位 中日ドラゴンズ
4位 阪神タイガーズ
5位 広島東洋カープ
6位 横浜DeNAベイスターズ
展望
4月はGのスタートが悪くSが例年通り躍進、他の4球団は5割前後を推移する
5月になりGのエンジンが温まり、CとDBの投手陣が陰りを見せ始める
T、S、Dはまずまずの勝率で推移する
交流戦と梅雨の時期に入り各チーム打線が沈黙する中、徐々にGが走り始める
Tは藤浪が苦しくなってチームの勢いがここでなくなり失速気味
DBはブランコが怪我しなければ3~4位を推移する
Cは前健、Dは吉見頼みでなんとか3~4位を死守
Sはここで主力が体調を崩し大きく勝率を落とす
交流戦を終えて各チームの戦力が把握されGが独走に入る
Sは主力が元気になり試合巧者を見せ始めGに喰らいつく
C,Dは大きな変動がないまま夏場に突入
Tは岩田次第でAクラスを伺えるところに出るが大望は難しい
DBは若手投手の伸び悩みで大きく失速
勝負の夏場は各チーム投手陣が疲れを見せ始める中
スタミナ豊富のエースを持つD、C、Tが踏ん張りDB、Sが失速
Gは豊富な戦力で大きく引き離す
秋口に入り再びSが息を吹き返しクライマックスシリーズ圏内に入り
これにT、Dが加わり激しい争いをする
Cはここで致命的な貧打に陥り投手陣の踏ん張りが効かなくなり
DBと激しい5位争いとなる
そして最終的に上記の順位で決する
以上、今期の展望でした
展開的には去年と似てる状況になると予想しますが
台風の目となるのはDeNAでここの打線好調時に
大きく取りこぼしてしまうチームが厳しい戦いになると予想します
なのでDeNAも若手投手の出来次第とブランコが無事なら非常に面白いと言えます
次回から今回の根拠を書いていこうと思います
皆さんの御意見をお待ちしております

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  183. 管理人 より:

    タケさん コメント有難うございます
    >私は国吉、加賀美、井納が7,8勝くらいするのではないかと踏んでいます。
    阪神の藤波は5勝10敗、広島の今井は6勝11敗位だと思います
    仰る通り国吉、加賀美ポテンシャル高いと思いますが
    能力を持て余しているのは何故なのか?
    そう考えると特に国吉に関しては厳しいかもしれません
    詳しくはDeNAの展望でお話します
    藤浪についても阪神の展望で、
    そして今井については現状怪我で出遅れていますが
    去年のボールの質を見てかなり高く評価しています

  184. 管理人 より:

    rupan-p-38-p-canさん コメント有難うございます
    >展望は、シュミレーションですね。
    中々、面白そうですが、シュミレーションするなら
    個人の成績、能力をコンピューターに打ちこみ、
    昨年の能力に準じて、インプットし、競馬でいう
    ダービースタリオンやら、野球の優勝プログラム
    作れば、それなりに予想できますよ
    それなりに私の頭の中で考えたんです
    御了承頂ければ幸いです

  185. タケ より:

    DeNAは若手投手が伸び悩みとありますが
    若手投手陣(昨年までこれといった実績のない)のポテンシャルは
    阪神・広島より上ではないでしょうか。
    私は国吉、加賀美、井納が7,8勝くらいするのではないかと踏んでいます。
    阪神の藤波は5勝10敗、広島の今井は6勝11敗位だと思います。

  186. rupan-p-38-p-can より:

    コメント失礼致します。
    展望は、シュミレーションですね。
    中々、面白そうですが、シュミレーションするなら
    個人の成績、能力をコンピューターに打ちこみ、
    昨年の能力に準じて、インプットし、競馬でいう
    ダービースタリオンやら、野球の優勝プログラム
    作れば、それなりに予想できますよ。
    そうすればもっとわかりやすいですが、いかんせん
    それだけでは、勝負っていうのはわかんないものです。
    基礎的能力なら文句なし 巨人の優勝でしょうか。
    但し、怪我、は別物ですね。
    順位予想は成程と思いました。但し私は、阪神をかっています。
    後ヤクルトでしょうか。広島は、上位にくる可能性のある
    チームです。
    巨人は今年は開幕から5連敗とかないでしょうか。
    優勝して当たり前の戦力ですが、「慢心」と「怪我」
    昨年はどうしても勝たないいけなかった。
    昨年より今年は、勝たないといけない気持ちは昨年より低い。
    だが戦力はアップした。但し他球団も戦力アップしました。
    巨人がずっこける時は、投壊と貧打、怪我、抑え不在、
    となるケースではないかと思います。
    ファンなら又解説者もほとんどが優勝予想。
    そういう時って面白いものです。ただ、監督に凄腕の監督が
    いないですねー。どこかに落合監督がいたなら強敵になるでしょう
    他のブログでも書きましたが、昨年のようにいかない気もします
    巨人さんの目標は 連続日本一でしょうか。
    100勝してクライマックス負けたら馬鹿みたいですよね。
    原監督っていうのは、短期決戦では意外に運もありますが
    弱い方だと私は思っています。昨年はCS シリーズも、運も
    ありました。ただ、今年はそうはいかないと思っています。
    セントラルは、必ず強敵がでるでしょうし、独走したとしても、
    パリーグの覇者が立ちはだかるでしょう。
    そのチームはわかりません。若いチームは落ち度もあります。
    監督のコメントを聞く限り、慢心があり 落合さんのような
    俺は、名将だと言う感じを受けるのですね。
    勝っていけばいくほどそういう風になっていく。昨年は
    スキャンダルもあり勝ち上がった。ただ、そういう時って
    意外にもろく崩れる事もありますね。
    巨人さんが本物のチームになる時っていうのは、私からすれば、
    村田、小笠原、杉内、ホールトン、引退した時
    本物の巨人軍が見えるでしょう。昨年は、村田に、杉内、ホールトン、ソフトバンクから契約といえど勝つ為にとり過ぎでしょう。
    同じチームからそれだけとるとソフトバンク応援したくなりますね
    自前で勝つチーム程強いものはありません。日ハムのように・・
    なんで、昨年は勝つ為に、大補強した。なので結果としてでた。
    当然の補強が実った。今年は、菅野も入り若手も伸びてきたので
    ゴンザレスを切り、東野もトレードにし、パワーアップした
    ようにも見えます。が、意外に落とし穴があるかもね・・・
    と私は思っています。
    5年後の巨人がもっといいチームになっているかも知れませんね。
    今の巨人は、好きじゃないですね。
    体質から変えて欲しい感じです。何十年も巨人見てきましたが
    今は、魅力はないです。ただ、勝つ為に裁判も・・・そんな感じに
    見ています。
    今のプロ野球にあまり魅力は感じなくなってます。
    面白味がない。パリーグは面白い。どうしてか?
    混沌としているからです。戦力がバランスとれているから
    面白いのかも・・・