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予想5位広島の根拠と今後の課題その③

引き続き広島についてです
広島カープ 根拠と今後の課題その③
5位 広島東洋カープ
下位に予想した理由
①慢性的にケガの多い主力と、外国人中心のチーム構成
②確実性の低い内野守備と4番エルドレッドの外野守備
③前評判の高い投手陣だが実は不安要素が多い
③の投手陣についてですが
私のイメージでざっくり先発候補のポテンシャルを
勝利数で表してみました
前田健 18勝
大竹 12勝
バリントン 12勝
野村 12勝
今井 12勝
斎藤 5勝
篠田 5勝
他の若手投手は1軍公式戦での実績が殆どないので解りません
2軍暮らしの長い投手も現状が解りません
ボールの質だけを考えると味方打線と守備がリーグトップレベルなら
上の5名の能力はかなり高いレベルにいます
しかし野村に関しては今年は壁に当たるかもしれません
理由としては去年夏場から失速したのがスタミナ不足だけが理由なのか?
私は相手に慣れられたのも大きいと考えています
これを打破するには去年に比べて真っすぐの質を上げる事が必要と思います
同じ事は去年のバリントンにも当たると思いますので
バリントンの1年目の活躍を望むのは厳しいと言わざるを得ません
それよりも問題なのは左腕不足ということです
中日から久本を補強し評判は上々のようですが果たして・・・・
こういう投手編成はチームの得手不得手がはっきり分かれてしまうので
コンスタントに白星を重ねるのが難しいと思います
リリーフについては
今村、ミコライオを中心に復活を期す永川がこれに絡めるかにかかっていますが
ミコライオについては相手から見るとそれほど驚異ではないと思います
1点差なら十分チャンスがあると考えます
そしてさらに問題なのはここでも左腕が居ません
江草、河内、久本が鍵を握ると思うのですが
私は岩見のボールのキレを買いたいですね
先日オープン戦で少し見ましたが全体的にボールが上ずっていたので
現状では厳しいのかもしれませんが
化けたら強力なセットアッパー誕生も夢ではないと思います

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  390. 管理人 より:

    Hさん フォロー有難うございました

  391. 管理人 より:

    ハプニングさん コメント有難うございます
    >クライマックス進出可能勝利数超えてるのに5位ですか!?
    この数字(勝ち星)から味方の得点能力、守備力と対戦相手との力関係から
    どの程度数字を減らしてしまうのか?
    とお考えいただけたら幸いです

  392. 管理人 より:

    府中町桃山二丁目さん コメント有難うございます
    >私は広島カープファンですが、ここまで甘い予想は初めて見ました。ぜひともこれだけ勝って欲しいと思います。
    上記でも触れましたがあくまでもポテンシャルなので
    甘く感じるかもしれません

  393. 府中町桃山二丁目 より:

    こんばんは
    >今井 12勝
    >斎藤 5勝
    >篠田 5勝
    私は広島カープファンですが、ここまで甘い予想は初めて見ました。ぜひともこれだけ勝って欲しいと思います。
    >岩見のボールのキレを買いたいですね
    ストライクが入るようになったら、買ってあげてください。

  394. 管理人 より:

    SSRさん コメント有難うございます
    >先発数人のポテンシャルがあるってだけで
    5位予想?最下位じゃなくて?
    最下位ならこの予想も解らんでもないんやけどねぇ
    ポテンシャル以外長所を全く書いてないんで
    どうも気になったんです
    下位なのでこのような文章になっています
    逆に言うと投攻守の指摘してきた課題が改善されたり
    または私の見込み違いだったりするとカープは
    上位に来ると思います

  395. H より:

    主様はポテンシャルと仰っていますよ。

  396. SSR より:

    広島ファンのものです
    一通り見せてもらいました
    つまりまとめると管理人さんの広島表は
    投手力 ポテンシャルだけは○
        しかしバリントン、野村はもう通用しない
    中継ぎ ×(左が居ないから)
    抑え  ×(ミコライオからなら1点取れる)
    打撃  ×(外国人に頼ってるから)
    守備  ×(言うまでもない)
    走力  ×(整備が必要)
    てとこよね
    先発数人のポテンシャルがあるってだけで
    5位予想?最下位じゃなくて?
    最下位ならこの予想も解らんでもないんやけどねぇ
    ポテンシャル以外長所を全く書いてないんで
    どうも気になったんです

  397. ハプニング より:

    クライマックス進出可能勝利数超えてるのに5位ですか!?