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予想4位阪神の根拠と今後の課題

今回は4位予想の阪神です
正直阪神と、ヤクルト、中日の3チームの順位は読めません
阪神は不確定要素が多いので4位、良い方向へ向けば2位という予想です
阪神 根拠と今後の課題
4位 阪神タイガース
理由
①DeNAと同様野手の選手層は厚くなるが質は未知数
②投手陣は去年からの底上げが少ない
③藤浪の開幕ローテーション入りの期待と不安
①について
退団選手と加入選手を比較すると
金本=福留
攻撃力は試合数を福留が重ねられれば上と見る
守備力では間違いなく上がる
ブラゼル=コントラッド
攻撃力はコントラッドは未知数、少なくともブラゼルの去年以上の活躍は最低限望まれる
守備力はブラゼルのファースト守備力(グラブ捌き)は高く評価していた
コントラッドのサード守備は新井兄弟と差の無いレベルと感じた
新井弟が3人の中ではスローイングが安定しているのでサードは彼がベストチョイスだと思うが・・・
平野=西岡
セカンド守備力は安定度、グラブ捌きで平野が若干良いと思う
走塁は体がロッテ時代と比べて大きくなってる西岡が変わらない動きができるのか?
盗塁能力はそれでも西岡の方が上だがベースランニングは平野も速く上手かったので差はないと見る
打撃は西岡の統一球対応に尽きると思う
オープン戦で結果を残しているのは好材料なので期待は大きい
日高については獲得の意味が私には理解できません
決して守備力が高い捕手とは言えない彼を補強するなら今成をなぜ去年獲得したのか・・・
攻撃力はほかの補強組に任せて藤井を中心に小宮山を我慢強く育てるのが賢明だと思う
こう見ると投手陣の弱体化を補うほどは攻撃の質は大きく向上したとも思えない
守備は往年の守備力はないかもしれないがそれでも福留の加入は大きい
②について
先発は能見、岩田、スタン、メッセの4本は味方の援護があれば強力で勝てるピッチャー
しかしそれに続く榎田については現状のデキでは厳しい
しかもそれに続く候補が高卒の藤浪では・・・・
希望的観測をするなら榎田は暖かくなって良くなるかもしれない
それでも若手の先発候補の台頭が欲しい所なのだがオープン戦を見る限り予兆はない
上記の柱4人のうち1人でも戦線離脱したら手の打ちようがなくなる
そんな危険で綱渡りな編成である
抑えは藤川の穴を久保でなんとか形にしたが
それより問題なのは7~8回を任せる選手の人材が乏しい
筒井、渡辺の出遅れは非常に痛いし鶴はハマるかもしれないが
残る人材が福原、安藤、加藤、川崎らベテランでは連戦が続けば直ぐに綻びが出るだろう
ここでも若い投手の台頭が望まれるが現状では厳しい
阪神ファンの間では松田という若いピッチャーが期待されているが
今シーズン中にこういうピッチャーが台頭してこなければ同じことを繰り返すこととなる
③について
藤浪を阪神首脳陣は開幕から先発ローテでまわすようだ
素材、気持ちの強さ等どれをとっても将来の球界を代表する投手になると思う
そう思うからこそせめて夏場までは下半身と体幹強化を中心に
しっかりフォームを固めて欲しかった
現状の彼の評価は正直厳しいと思います
ストレートの球威はあるが球筋がバラバラで抜け球が多い
甲子園であれだけ投げたのだからスタミナはプロの生活に慣れれば問題ないと思いますが
公式戦ではカウントを悪くするケースが増えるので決め球のスライダーの効果は半減されるでしょう
「2度目の対戦でプロは攻略できる」現状はそんなレベルだと思います
元巨人の槇原も藤浪同様ポテンシャルが高く
将来を嘱望されたが5月に衝撃の完封勝利を飾るもその年のシーズン後半は肘を痛めたり
その後股関節、膝など下半身の怪我に悩まされ
常にケガと戦い1シーズン満足に活躍する投手にならず無冠で終わってしまった
それでも素晴らしい成績を残したとは思うが
私は今でも彼のポテンシャルなら200勝も夢ではなかったと思っています
「誰もが認めるエースか、良いピッチャーの1人」どちらになるかは
今年1年の過ごし方にかかっている

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