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妄想コラム 来期のジャイアンツ戦力分析①

FA見返り選手放出及び外国人補強の除いて
来期の戦力の概要が大まかに見えてきました
ここで現時点での戦力を分析して
見えてくるGの強みと弱みを見つけていきたい
そこから最後のピースとして必要となる新外国人が
見えてくると考える
まず前提として述べておきたいのはFA補填として移籍する選手が
2名でしかも投手が濃厚であると勝手に結論づけ
以前の投稿で出した『私の心の中でのプロテクトリスト』を
元に考えていきたい
よって外した選手は来期の戦力分析の中では考えていない
妄想コラムなのでそこは御容赦していただきたい
まずは投手陣
先発組
中核メンバー 内海、杉内、菅野、大竹
期待メンバー 澤村、宮國、今村、小山
願望メンバー 笠原、阿南、松本竜
中核、期待の8人が中心となり先発ローテを構成すると思われる
左3人、右5人で今村の飛躍次第ではあるがバランスは悪くない
これに願望メンバーが絡んでくるか?
内海、大竹に関しては投手としては油がのってる時期
技術的な大きな飛躍はないが衰退も考えづらい
杉内は投手として明らかに過渡期
今年の内容を振り替えると明らかに直球は劣化している
走らない直球を意識するのでフォーム全体に力みが増し
杉内の特徴であるフォームと投げるボールの緩急がなくなっている
またフォームのバランスを崩しているので
スライダーの制球にも影響している
来期は杉内が修正してくるのか(修正できるレベルの劣化なのか)
それとも肉体的な問題で無理なのか?
私は後者という予想をしておく
菅野は二年目のジンクスを指摘される向きもあるが
私は今年一年日本シリーズまでパフォーマンスを
大きく落とさなかった事を評価し
少なくとも最低でも一桁で勝ち星が終わるような事はないと考える
以上四人の中核メンバーは去年の中核だった内海、菅野
杉内、ホールトン(澤村)とはメンバー的に大きな差はないと考えるが
勝ち星を伸ばすかどうかには疑問も残る
だが大きくローテを崩してしまうような事にはならないとも考える
もっとも大きな怪我がないことが前提だが。。。
期待組の四人については小山に期待したい
元々良いものを持っていた角度のある直球に加え
最大の武器であるフォークボールの精度が年々増している
来期の課題はカウント球でもある緩いカーブの制球がポイントになる
私は彼にはこれ一点につきると思う
打者から見ると追い込まれると長身から投げ下ろすフォークはかなり厄介
安易なフルスイングが難しくなってくるので自然と結果はついてくる
テレビから感じ取れる彼の性格を考えると
打者を上から目線で見られるようになったら
恐ろしい投手に化ける可能性を秘めている
本格的に投手としてキャリアを積んだのは大学からで
運動能力については天性のものを持っている
澤村はスライダーの制球力だけ
私の評価では先発としてやっていくならフォークを磨くよりも
こちらを最優先で考えて欲しい
外低めにスライダーを出し入れ出来れば今のようなことはないと断言できる
現状は目先を変える程度に投げている(そのレベルのコントロールしかない)
ので先発としては致命的な弱点
しかもそのスライダーの精度は年々劣化している
逆に抑えとしてやるならスライダーは捨ててフォークを磨くのもアリだが。。
ポテンシャルを考えると口惜しくなるが来年も大きく修正されるとは思えない
宮國の今シーズンの投球には大いに失望した
極端に言えば成長度を全く感じなかったので
研究してきた相手から見れば当然組みやすい相手だった筈
変化球の精度はアバウト、直球も腕が横ぶりなのでシュート回転
特に左打者が多いチームには立ち向かえない
宮國は自分の目指すべき投手像をハッキリさせる時期に来ていると思う
勝手な印象だが彼の投球には『意思』が見えない
厳しい言い方をすれば今年の開幕当時と同じ『覚悟』なら大望はない
私の評価では来期も厳しいと見る
今村についてはGファンの間で来期飛躍を期待する方も多い
私もその中の一人だがまだ高卒三年目で冷静に見る必要がある
彼を始めてみたときにまず思ったのが
元G高橋尚にフォームがそっくりだということ
持ち球も同じといってよい
コントロールはまだまだ高橋尚には及ばないがまだ若く伸びしろはある
彼が来期二桁勝つような投手になるには
オープン戦から結果を残すことが必至である
まずはチーム内の争いに勝ち、開幕からローテを任せられることだ
その為の課題としては右打者の内角の直球のキレと出し入れを磨くこと
チームの中に内海というピッチングスタイルが似ているよいお手本がいるので
どんどん勉強して欲しい
客観的に見ると来年一年で飛躍への足場を強固なものとし
再来年に羽ばたく事が彼にとってはベストだと思う
現状の彼の持ち球ではエース級に育つ可能性があるとまでいえない
恐らく来年は開幕当初はある程度は勝てても夏場以降は体力不足と
相手球団の研究に苦しむ一年と考える
むしろこの経験が彼には大きな財産になる筈だ
以上先発ローテ候補を見てきたが私の分析では開幕から交流戦までは
内海、杉内、菅野、大竹、澤村、今村のローテで大きな問題はないが
夏場以降は先発4番目以降のメンバーで勝ち星を拾うためには
小山が大きなポイントになると思う
それに阿南、笠原が谷間を埋めて今村、澤村(リリーフ再転向もあり)等の
不調をどうカバーするかにかかっている
小山、笠原、阿南に大きな期待をかけないのであれば
澤村の扱い方にも影響してくるが
新外国人をここにあてるという選択肢も考えられる
長くなったので続きは次回に。。

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