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【超激辛順位予想】2014年・セントラルリーグ順位予想 Part1・ジャイアンツ、ドラゴンズ編

表1【セントラルリーグ順位予想・割合】
     優勝 2位 3位 4位 5位 6位
読売   95  5  0  0  0  0
中日    0 30 30 25 10  5
広島    0 30 30 20 20  0
阪神    5 20 20 25 30  0
DeNA    0  5 10 15 25 45
ヤクルト  0 10 10 15 15 50
順位の数字は%
※割合はデータに基づいた数値ではなく、あくまでも私の予想順位を感覚で表した数値に過ぎませんので、何卒御理解下さい。
表1は各チームの予想順位の幅を表す。
ジャイアンツを例にすると、予想順位の割合は、1位になる確率95%、2位が5%、3位以下は無いと予想。
最終的に当ブログとしての順位予想は以下の通り
表2【最終順位予想】
優勝 読売ジャイアンツ
2位 中日ドラゴンズ
3位 広島東洋カープ
4位 阪神タイガース
5位 横浜DeNAベイスターズ
6位 東京ヤクルトスワローズ
順位予想で各チームを評価する上で私が最も重視するポイントは投手力。
それも、以下の2パターンに分けて評価している。
〜優勝するために必要な投手編成〜
①投手力を中心にした守りの野球をするチームの場合
先発投手の「力量」と「頭数」、勝ちゲームリリーフ3人を確立(もしくは強力な2枚+左右豊富なコマを揃える)
②攻撃力を全面に押し出す攻撃型のチームの場合
先発投手の「頭数」、勝ちゲームのリリーフ3人を確立(もしくは強力な2枚+左右豊富なコマを揃える)
勿論、打撃力・走塁力・守備力のバランスの良さが前提だが・・。
①を説明すると、打撃力が若干低く、投手力でカバーしようとするチームで重視するのは、先発投手の「力量」そして「頭数」。
なるべく相手に先取点を与えない、粘り強いピッチングを求められる投手を多く抱えている必要がある。
そしてリードした状態で、強力なリリーフ陣を投入し逃げ切りを狙う。
続いて②を説明すると、高い打撃力で若干弱い投手力をカバーするために重視するのは、先発投手の「頭数」。
仮に先発が先取点を相手に与えても、セーフティーリードの範囲で我慢し、味方の攻撃力で逆転を狙う展開に持ち込む。
そして6回以降リードしたら、逆転を許さない強力なリリーフ陣を投入する。
どちらもリリーフ投手は大きな負担を強いられるが、攻撃型の②の方がリリーフ投手の「力量と人数」が更に需要となる。
では球団別に考えてみる
【ジャイアンツ】
〜優勝予想の根拠〜
①投手陣
先発の軸は菅野・内海・杉内・大竹の四人
率直に言えば大竹が加入した事は非常に大きい。
去年この3人で作った貯金は19(菅野7、内海7、杉内5)
菅野についてはOP戦の内容を見ると、去年同様かなりの貯金を作りそうだが、内海・杉内については2人で7個程度の可能性がある。(特に杉内については不安な部分が多い)
そうすると、菅野が去年と同じ貯金7とすると14個になる。
19ー14=5
残りの貯金5を大竹に期待するわけだが、オープン戦の内容を見るとかなり期待できる。
巷では大竹は貯金が出来ない投手という評価があるが、去年までのカープのリリーフ陣と山口・マシソン・西村を比較すれば、降板後に星を落とすような事は少なくなると考えるので、彼に期待する貯金5は十分期待できる。
一方で、実績が無い若手、新外国人については期待先行なので、過ぎた期待はしない方が賢明。(Gに限ったことではない)
個人的な評価では、今村以外の若手でチームに貯金を作ってくれそうな投手は見当たらない。
イニング稼げる澤村は怪我で出遅れ、宮國、小山は、ピッチングの内容が不安定。
それでも宮國は進歩を見せてはいるが、今村に感じる安定感まで行ってない。
その今村も出遅れているが・・・。
しかしながら、Gの場合は強力なリリーフ三人が控えているので、柱の四人以外の投手が先発でも勝ちを拾うケースが多い。
又、打線の援護が期待できるので、先発が崩れてもロングリリーフ役がゲームをしっかり作れば、同じく勝ちを拾うケースも出てくる。
②野手陣
特に不安はないが、阿部の長期離脱時のみ得点能力は大きく落ちる。
しかし、それでも去年から得点源が阿部に集中せず、村田・長野・ロペス等に分散してるので決定的なダメージではないと考える。
〜優勝以外の可能性を探る〜
5%の不安は、山口・マシソン・西村の強力3人トリオの中から2人長期離脱した場合。
1人なら何とかカバーできると思うが、生命線であるこのトリオが崩れた時、戦い方の根幹が崩れる。
〜結論〜
Gは非常に投打のバランスが取れているが、チームのタイプで言えば攻撃型の②と考える。
②のチームが優勝する条件である投手の頭数、強力な3枚のリリーフを備えているので優勝の大本命は揺るがない。
【ドラゴンズ】
〜2位予想の根拠〜
①投手陣
先発の軸は大野・カブレラ・山井・岡田
軸の4人の中で去年二桁勝ったのは大野のみ、岡田の場合は今年から先発に本格的に挑戦するという段階。
しかも去年、4人とも殆ど貯金が作れていないので、計算出来るとは言い難い。
だが個人的にカブレラ・山井・岡田は能力的には高いレベルに位置していると評価する。
特に岡田は安定感も備えているので、かなりの貯金を作る投手になるポテンシャルを秘める。
大野については評価が難しい投手と考える。
私の印象では100球前後でかなり能力が落ちる投手なので、リリーフ陣が鍵を握りそう。
カブレラ・山井については、首脳陣が使い方を間違わなければ、それなりの結果を出すと思う。
軸と考える4人以外では川上・山本昌・雄太・山内・西川等が考えられる。
川上は開幕投手だが、年間通して軸になるには肉体的に厳しさが残る。
山本昌も同様、そうなると山内、雄太ら中堅クラスの頑張りが重要になる。
西川については、去年の阪神戦の登板を見たが、化ける可能性を秘めた投手ではあるが、過度の期待をしないほうが良いだろう。
そして6月復帰が噂される吉見が、どの程度の能力で復帰してくるのだろうか?
彼が力を発揮出来る状態で復活すれば、Aクラス入りが確かなものとなる。
こう考えるとG投手陣には実績で劣るが、戦えるメンバーは揃っているように思う。
しかし、不確定要素や怪我で離脱することが多いので、不安感は拭えない。
リリーフ陣は浅尾の離脱は確かに痛いが、田島、武藤を筆頭に多彩な面々が揃っている。
岩瀬も年齢的に限界に近づいているのは確かだが、今年も形は作っていくだろう。
今年から森さんがコーチとして復帰し、投手陣を再編成すると思う。
ドラゴンズが強かった当時の投手起用は、調子の上がらない投手は無理して使わず、二軍に落として調整させていた。
そして現状使える投手を優先的に起用していき、調子が落ちたら二軍で再調整させ、再び状態が上がるのを待つようなやり方だった。
今の投手陣に、そこまで余裕ある投手起用が出来るとは思えないが、去年のような投手起用はしないと思う。
それだけでも私の考えでは大きな戦力アップになってる。
②野手陣
井端の後釜、荒木の状態等、不安要素は確かに抱えているが、セカンド・ショート候補として私は岩崎恭を推したい。
高橋周についてはショートは厳しいので、将来的にはサードがベストだと思う。
そして野手陣の鍵を握る選手は、4番を任せられる平田の活躍、そして大島が輝きを取り戻せるかだろう。
1番、4番が固まれば、ルナ・森野・和田など脇を固めるメンバーは揃ってるので得点力は上がる。
こうして見ると打線も悪くない。
〜不安点を探る〜
・現状、投手陣では先発投手に大きな貯金が期待できる軸が居ないこと。
・そうは言っても、浅尾の離脱で台所事情が厳しくなったリリーフ陣。
・野手陣の世代交代が円滑に進むか?
〜結論〜
チームのタイプは守りの野球の①だと思う。
優勝するには、先発投手陣の「力量」が不足している。
だが、十分Aクラスを狙える投手陣に蘇る可能性は大いに感じる。
以上
残りのチームについては次回以降で・・。
敬称略
皆様からの御意見、御感想を心からお待ちしております。
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  158. hitokoto より:

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    昨年度パーフェクト予想されていたブログ主は阪神ファンの方でいましたね。
    内容はやや的外れな部分もありましたけれども一番優れていたの点が最下位ヤクルト予想(少なくとも昨年に関して言い切る人は少なかった)の大した補強がなされていないという部分でした。
    それを考えると中日の順位予想は少し高すぎる感じはしますね(OP戦結果をみての防御率を考慮しても)。
    予防線として2位から6位までありうる予想とは書かれていますが、戦力補強としては少し薄い年に思いました。
    投手陣で触れられてないですが中堅だった中田の退団も地味ですがマイナス。先発ローテの柱として年間通して活躍した年もありますし、昨年も便利枠で100回近いイニングを食ってましたから、広島大竹、阪神久保スタンリッジ放出ほどの痛手ではありませんが損失には変わりません。山井は良い投手ですが年齢的なものもありますし年間通して100回が限度では。
    ムラも激しいタイプですし昨年も後半は明らかに息切れしていましたよ。それを含めて運用次第なのでしょうが。
    投手陣全体でみるとそれでも頭数は揃っている為厚みはありますし、やりくり上手な森ヘッドと友利コーチコンビが手腕を発揮し、後半には吉見、浅尾が復帰すれば侮れないこわい存在だとは思います。

  159. 管理人 より:

    catさん いつもコメント有難うございます
    阪神については詳しくは今日アップする??記事に詳しく書きますが
    抑えの前のリリーフ陣が不安だと思います。
    しかしG以外で唯一優勝の可能性を秘めてるチームでも有ります
    福留、ゴメスが活躍することが大前提でしょうね。
    catさんが密かに期待してる選手・・横川では? 
    と勝手に想像しました・・。 笑
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  160. 管理人 より:

    ジャイアンヒロセさん いつもコメント有難うございます
    先発5番手は宮國が務めそうですが
    6番手については読めません・・・。
    当面5人で廻すという説を元G水野氏が言ってるようで・・。
    中日に関しては確かに落合さんの存在は大きいのですが
    本文でも触れてますが、何気に森さんが存在感有るんですよね・・。
    ピッチャーの使い方は全て一任されてますから・・。
    順位予想が、かなり辛いです 苦笑
    今日中に他のチームを書けそうな気が・・・。
    ではまたお待ちしております

  161. 管理人 より:

    nakajiさん いつもコメント有難うございます
    私の希望オーダーも全く同じです。
    片岡一番は面白いですよね・・。
    隠し玉は、投・須永で打・立岡は同意見です。
    ではまたお待ちしております

  162. takuhonomasa より:

    いつもレポートありがとうございます。
    順位予想は私もかつてやっていましたが、優勝と最下位は
    割と当たるものの、3つ以上当てるのは、相当難しいですね。
    ジャイアンツは、管理人様の指摘とおり後ろの3人が崩れた場合はかなり不安ですね。あと、打線が打てない時期が長く続くと、攻撃重視のメンバーになり、危険かもしれません。
    投手と打者のキーマンを挙げるなら、投手は高木(京)と久保
    打者は井端と橋本と見ています。
    ドラゴンズは、カブレラと浅尾、大島です。
    管理人様とほぼ同意見です。
    ただ3位かなと思っています。

  163. ゆーすけ より:

    順位予想なんて当たらなくてもともとですからね。
    スポーツナビのブログ内で去年の順位をピタリと当てた人が一人でもいたかどうか怪しいものです・・・
    (自分がいちいちいろんな人の13年3月の過去記事を見た限りではいなかったですが。)
    どちらかといえばそれぞれの管理人さんの戦力の見方の発表の場ですよね。
    (あと贔屓球団について全力でプラスに考える場でもあるんですが巨人はその必要が無さそうですね。)

  164. yuki100 より:

    コメント失礼します。
    今シーズンのジャイアンツの投手陣、一抹の不安は拭えないですがやはり大竹の加入は大きいですね。それとリスクを考えての補助を着々としている感じの原監督。
    先発陣が崩れた時や流れを変えたい場合一昨年は福田が担い昨年は青木、後半は澤村という風に大崩れしない試合をつくり押えの3人衆繋いでいく継投を行い勝利に結び付けていったのではないでしょうか。
    今シーズンは山口に不安な要素が見え隠れする中で高木京がポイントのなるのではないかとオープン戦の起用を見て感じた次第です。
    高木京がある程度任せられれば山口の負担も軽減できるし逆に山口が安定していれば数イニングを引っ張れる高木京は荒れかけた試合の中盤を任せられれば思い切った若手の起用も考えられるのではないかと思います。
    また笠原もそういった要素を含んだ起用になると思いますが原監督の思いに答えられる投手になれれば更に磐石な投手陣が形成されるのではないかと思っています。
    こういった投手起用も今シーズンの勝敗を左右するものと思い観戦したいものです。
    当ブログ詳細なデータや細かいチェックをされて感心して拝見させていただいています。
    これからも時々寄らせていただきたいと思いますので宜しくお願い致します。

  165. kh より:

    おはようございます。さすがにドラゴンズの2位は厳しいと思います。チーム自体過渡期ですので若手への切り替えができなければBクラスの方が高いと思います。谷繁がフルにでれる可能性も少ないし。ベイスターズやスワローズに取りこぼししそうだと4位から5位の方があると思います。吉見、浅尾が復調すればAクラスはあるかも知れませんが。

  166. 管理人 より:

    takuhonomasaさん いつもコメント有難うございます
    鍵を握る選手を挙げるなら、私も氏の御意見にかなり近いです。
    打は橋本、片岡
    投は高木京、笠原
    片岡は坂本が不振の場合、代役として監督は1番を考えると思うので
    彼も不振になると打順が難しくなります
    私もオーダーが攻撃寄りになることを危惧しています。
    個人的にも嫌いなんですよね・・苦笑
    ではまたお待ちしております

  167. 管理人 より:

    ゆーすけさん コメント有難うございます
    私も去年の順位予想は1位以外大はずれでした。。 苦笑
    今年も自信は全く有りません。
    優勝は確信してるんですけどね 笑
    御覧頂き有難うございます
    是非又お立ち寄り下さい!

  168. 管理人 より:

    yuki100さん コメント有難うございます
    高木京、笠原についてのお考えに同意です
    まず京介については私も鍵を握っていると思いますし
    万が一、山口が離脱した場合のサポート役として重要視されます
    笠原については、かなり成長しているので期待感は高いです
    まだ変化球の精度に課題は残していますが
    腕の振りがゲームを重ねる毎に良くなってるので
    役割ができたら、大化けの可能性を秘めていると思います。
    仰るとおり、原さんは手を打っている印象が有ります!
    いつも御覧頂き有難うございます
    どうぞお気軽に、またお越し下さい!

  169. 管理人 より:

    khさん コメント有難うございます
    中日の評価については意見が分かれますね
    私も最下位の可能性を否定しない2位予想なので
    岡田で貯金できない場合はBクラス必至になると見ています
    貴重な御意見有難うございます
    是非またお立ち寄り下さい!

  170. 管理人 より:

    Yoshiさん コメント有難うございます
    私も澤村には密かに期待しています・・。
    プロ入り後初めての長期離脱で不安はありますが
    自分のピッチングをもう一度見つめ直す良い時間が
    作れたのではないかと思っています。
    復帰後の投手陣の状況次第で役割が変わってくる事が予想されますが
    期待しています!
    中日については確かに不気味さはありますが
    優勝の可能性がかなり薄い中での2位評価なので
    チームとしての勝ち方を知ってるという意味で
    安定感を買っての2位です。
    それと・・・仰るとおり・・。
    谷繁がマスクを被ると相手のピッチャーが15勝級に錯覚します 笑
    それでは、是非またお立ち寄り下さい

  171. Yoshi より:

    いつも詳細な分析勉強になります。
    巨人はやはり後ろの3人の状態が鍵を握りますね。
    今年も3人が全員負担の強いリリーフを一年続けれるかどうかは不安があります。
    澤村の復帰時期、昨年終盤の様にリリーフで活躍できるかどうかが案外カギを握っているような気もます。
    怖いのはやはり中日ですね。森コーチが相当投手陣を整えてきそうです。
    ただ先発投手は素材は凄いですが自分で試合をつくれるタイプではないので、結局谷繁選手がどれくらい万全の状態で試合に出られるかがポイントになると感じています。

  172. cat より:

    こんにちは。表1面白いです。どこが何位とか言うよりそうこういう感じ2位もあるし5位もあるかもみたいな。
    ヤクルトは監督もいいしメンバー揃えば最下位なんてないと思うんですがたかがOP戦と言ってしまえばそうですがOP戦下位がシーズン下位は多いんですよね。やっぱり難しいかな。
    中日はGMといい投手が育つ環境それに守備いい選手が多い 不思議なんですが球団によってありますね。コーチとか環境なんだろうけどこういう選手が集まりやすいみたいな。巨人は打撃が得意が集まりやすい 中日はいい投手、好守備が多いみたいな。地力あるチームなんですがまだ上位は厳しいかもとも思ってます。
    管理人さんの予想順位は自分は阪神以外はあんまり変わらないです。選手は良く考えると先発も野手もなかなか揃ってますよね
    話題の2人が実は大活躍?とか恐れてるんですが管理人さんの順位だと意外に攻略出来そうなのかな
    巨人の不安は先発のみです。野手は怖いことにみんな変わりが存在する。色々言われてますが全員絶好調である必要はない。全員絶不調にならなければいい。また野手は控えのレベルがいいし
    キーマンかどうか今期は1人凄く気になる人がいるんです。あんまり表情出すタイプじゃないけど去年の成績が相当悔しいらしく見てて何か感じるんです。今年は達成しそうな記録沢山あるけどでもそれはそれで凄いけどやっぱり~だねって言われるような
    ただの勘ですが(笑)主役は遅れて登場 はまだ諦めてません。
    怪我なくみんないいプレーが出来ますように

  173. ジャイアンヒロセ より:

    管理人さんお邪魔します。
    右の中継ぎは田原、江柄子あたりが有力視されていましたが、インフル禍をかいくぐった?香月と笠原がすべり込みましたね。まさしく無事是名馬。香月と笠原にはこのチャンスをモノにして欲しいです。現時点では鉄腕山口が本調子ではないので、その負担を減らすという役割も担うと思われます。京介、青木を含めた中継ぎ4人に期待したいと思います。それにしても先発5、6番手は誰になるんでしょうか。
    打者では、結果を残した橋本が8番センターにすべり込みそうです。失敗を恐れずに思い切った、かつ丁寧なプレイを期待したいと思います。バッティングも守備も走塁も我々を楽しませるだけの力を付けているはずなので、力を十二分に発揮してこの最大のチャンスをモノにして欲しいです。
    坂本は不安がぬぐいきれませんが、この試練を乗り越えてもらいたい。
    さて他球団ですが、私も落合GMという最大の補強をした中日は不気味です。何だかんだで投手陣が整備されてくると思われます。とにかく中日の若い投手はこぞって球が速い。もともと打線は今イチですが、それでも典型的な守りのチーム、投手陣次第ではAクラスに食い込んでくるかもしれません。
    それにしても、落合GM1人の加入でここまで周りに脅威を与えるんですから、落合さんってスゴイんですね。
    我が巨人軍の2軍はまだインフルが止まりません。
    西武も期待のルーキー森くんをはじめ、たいへんそうですね。
    管理人さん、明日もよろしくお願いします。

  174. nakaji より:

    管理人さん、お邪魔します。 
     
    <順位予想>1巨人2広島3横浜4中日5阪神6ヤクルト
     
    <オーダー>
     
    (予想)1坂本(遊)(希望)1片岡(二) (願望)1片岡(二)
        2片岡(二)    2橋本(中)     2松本(中)
        3長野(右)    3長野(右)     3村田(三)
        4村田(三)    4村田(三)     4阿部(捕)
        5阿部(捕)    5阿部(捕)     5長野(右)
        6ロペ(一)    6坂本(遊)     6坂本(遊)
        7アン(左)    7ロペ(一)     7ロペ(一)
        8橋本(中)    8アン(左)     8高橋(左)
     
    <キーマン> (投)杉内 (打)坂本
     
    <隠し球選手>(投)土田 (打)立岡