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【超激辛順位予想】2014年・セントラルリーグ順位予想 Part2・カープ編

今回は3位に予想したカープについて説明していきます。
表1【セントラルリーグ順位予想・割合】
     優勝 2位 3位 4位 5位 6位
読売   95  5  0  0  0  0
中日    0 30 30 25 10  5
広島    0 30 30 20 20  0
阪神    5 20 20 25 30  0
DeNA    0  5 10 15 25 45
ヤクルト  0 10 10 15 15 50
順位の数字は%
※割合はデータに基づいた数値ではなく、あくまでも私の予想順位を感覚で表した数値に過ぎませんので、何卒御理解下さい。
表1は各チームの予想順位の幅を表す。
ジャイアンツを例にすると、予想順位の割合は、1位になる確率95%、2位が5%、3位以下は無いと予想。
最終的に当ブログとしての順位予想は以下の通り
表2【最終順位予想】
優勝 読売ジャイアンツ
2位 中日ドラゴンズ
3位 広島東洋カープ
4位 阪神タイガース
5位 横浜DeNAベイスターズ
6位 東京ヤクルトスワローズ
【カープ】
〜3位に予想した根拠〜
①投手陣
去年カープはチームとして三位の成績だったが、勝敗で言うと借金3で終わっている。
だが先発投手陣を見ていくと、前田(8)・バリントン(2)・野村(6)、軸となる3人で14の貯金を作った。
これに移籍した大竹が貯金こそ作れなかったが、163イニング登板しローテの軸として活躍していた。
軸の3人で作った14の貯金が、チームとしては借金3に変わってしまってる理由は、5〜6番手投手が弱い、リリーフ失敗が多い事が挙げられる。
そして今年の場合は大竹の穴も埋めなくてはならないので、ハードルは更に上がった。
では今年の先発候補を見てみる。
バリントンがオープン戦が不調で若干不安を残しているが、前田は言うに及ばず野村も安定感の有る投手なので、三人で10〜15の貯金を見込めると思う。
問題は4番手以降の投手が、3人の貯金を減らさないように出来るか?にかかっている。
四番手以降の投手を務める顔ぶれは、新人の大瀬良、九里、今井、福井、篠田らが予想される。
この中では大瀬良が一番期待されている。
彼のピッチングを見た印象は大学時代よりかなり良くなってると思う。
以前は変化球を投げる時に腕の振りが緩むような印象と、調子を落としてくると体の開きが少し早くなる癖を感じたが、腕の振りが緩む事に関しては、かなり解消されている。
問題は悪くなった時に、悪いなりのピッチングが出来なければプロのローテは守れないということ。
オープン戦のピッチングを見て感じた私の評価は、年間ローテを任せて8勝〜10勝で負けも同じくらいと予想する。
彼一人で大竹の穴を埋めてもおかしくはない。
九里については、気持ちの入ったピッチングをする投手で、実戦で力を発揮するタイプに感じたが若干力不足。
やはり、今井・福井・篠田の中で、最低一人ローテを守る投手が出てこなければ、軸三人の貯金を一気に喰い潰す結果になる。
個人的にはこの中では今井を推したいが・・。
仮に今井で貯金を作れなくても、しっかりイニング数を稼ぎ、ローテを守る事が出来れば2位も見えてくると思う。
問題はリリーフ陣。
永川は完全復活した印象だが、最近は年間通して一軍にいるわけではないので、ここは懸念材料。
ミコライオについては、抑えとしてリリーフ失敗が若干多いことが懸念材料だが、年間通しての安定感は有る。
今村は不振から脱していない。
横山は実績有るが、元々怪我が多く、年齢的にも過大な期待をかけるのは酷。
中田廉はオープン戦で結果を残しているが、相手チームの勢いを断ち切る能力を秘めた投手なのか?と考えると、やや疑問を感じる。
一岡も確かにポテンシャルは高いが、まだまだ勝ちゲームのリリーバーとしては力不足。
更に問題なのが左腕リリーフ不在。
現状、右のリリーフだと左の強打者を迎えた時、どうしても逃げのピッチングになる傾向が強い。
ここを久本等が埋めてくれると一気にバリエーションが増えるが・・・。
新外国人のフィリップスを、本来なら貴重な左腕リリーバーとして入れたいが、外国人枠の問題で使えない。
去年と比較すると、シーズンの頭から永川が居ることは大きなプラス材料なので、これにミコライオを加えた二人で当面は凌ぎたい。
問題は二人が調子を落とした時、代役が出てくるか?である。
出てくればリリーフで勝負を落とす試合が減る。
②野手陣
キャッチャーは今年も石原を軸に、倉をサブで使うことになるが、ソロソロ次世代を育成したい。
内野はキラ・菊池・梵を中心に、ルーキー田中の加入で層が厚くなった。
私の田中に対する評価はかなり高く、新人王候補の有力候補の一人に挙げる。
これに去年後半、堂林の離脱後に活躍した左の木村や、右の小窪が控える布陣となり、梵を休ませながら使える。
但しオープン戦を見ると、去年後半影を潜めていた内野手のエラーがチラホラ見受けられた。
去年前半カープが苦しんだのは、大事なところでミスするケースが多かった事が原因の一つ。
今年もこれを繰り返すようだと、投手を中心とした守りの野球が破綻しかねない。
外野は丸を中心に、松山・エルドレッド・堂林・広瀬(故障で離脱中)らが起用されるだろう。
他にも守備力が高い天谷、赤松もいるので層は厚い。
但し先発で主に使わえる選手は打撃力はあるが、守備に難がある選手が多いのが欠点。
比較的守備力が高い丸も、肩は強く、足もあるが、打球判断力は高い方ではないので理想はライトで使いたいところ。
センター・丸、レフト・エルドレッドはリスクが高い布陣になる。
〜総評〜
中日、阪神とAクラスを争うことを予想しているが、軸の三人がしっかりしてるので、Aクラス入りという観点では、かなり有力だと思う。
但し中日と比べると、軸の強さでは勝る投手陣だが、先発、リリーフ共に頭数が少ない印象は拭えないので3位評価となった。
優勝は厳しいと予想するが、実現するにはかなり高いハードルを越えねばならない。
①大瀬良で貯金を10近く作ること
②今村が完全復活し、強力リリーフトリオを結成し年間活躍すること
③4番キラが100打点以上の数字を残すこと
④Gの自滅
この4つが重なった時にチャンスが生まれると見るが、現実的にはかなり難しい・・・。
以上
残りのチームについては、出来れば本日中に公開します。
敬称略
皆様からの御意見、御感想を心からお待ちしております。
【超激辛NPBコラ厶twitter】展開中!
Twitterアカウント@hideo469998で検索

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  384. 管理人 より:

    komeさん コメント有難うございます
    開幕戦の同点ホームランを見ると
    奇跡ではないですね。。。苦笑
    御覧頂き有難うございます
    是非又お立ち寄り下さい

  385. kome より:

    4つの奇跡の中ではキラの100打点はいけると思います。
    あとはちょっと無理かな…。イマムーは先発で大竹と同じような道を行って欲しい。イニングを消化してくれるっていうだけですけど。

  386. 管理人 より:

    関西のカープファンさん コメント有難うございます
    御指摘有難うございます。
    若い捕手を経験させるというカープの方針は素晴らしいですね
    次の時代の布石を打つことは非常に大切ですから。。。
    カープに深い愛情がある野村監督ならではの考えだと思います。
    御覧頂き有難うございました
    是非又お越し下さい

  387. 管理人 より:

    yasuさん コメント有難うございます
    仰る通り、若い選手が多いので楽しみですね。
    カープは非常に魅力的なチームです。
    御覧頂き有難うございます
    是非またお立ち寄り下さい

  388. 関西のカープファン より:

    データに基づく詳細な分析ご苦労様です。
    管理人さんってカープファンではなかったですよね?
    それなのにかなり詳しい分析に脱帽です。
    ファンとしては巨人を破って優勝!と言いたいんですけどやっぱ優勝は厳しいですよね(^^;)
    管理人さんの分析に対する意見としては、捕手については倉は二軍待機で石原をメインで使いつつ白濱等の中堅・若手を使っていくのではないかと思います。
    倉が絶不調だったわけでもないのにキャンプ・オープン戦を通じてずっと二軍待機だったのは二軍で若手投手の育成や倉に引退後のコーチのための経験を積ませるためだと予想します。
    なので石原にアクシデントがあった場合や終盤の勝負所以外では倉は基本二軍待機になるのではないでしょうか?

  389. yasu より:

    まあ分析通り誰か主力が怪我すると選手層が薄いだけにズルズルいくケースがある。でも若いチームなので逆に勢いにのればいいところまでいくはず