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読売ジャイアンツvs阪神タイガース CS第1戦 展望【超激辛妄想コラム】

今日からクライマックスシリーズ2ndステージが開幕する。
パ・リーグについてはホークスの圧倒的有利と予想するが、セ・リーグは幾つかのキーポイントの行方によっては、G有利という予想から混戦になるかもしれないし、タイガースが逆転進出という目も出てくると思う。


【セ・CS2ndステージ予想先発】
各マスコミの報道内容を総合すると以下の順番が予想される。
① 内海:岩田
② 澤村:メッセンジャー
③ 杉内:藤浪
④ 小山:能見
⑤ 内海:岩崎
⑥ 澤村:岩田
特にタイガースが読みづらいが初戦・2戦目が終われば3戦以降は比較的予想しやすい。
初戦は各紙意見が分かれていて、藤浪起用が主流意見になっている。
しかし、3戦目が岩田なら5戦まで左が三人続くことになり、そこは疑問に思うので初戦は岩田とした。
ジャイアンツは内海・澤村を中4日でまわす予想が主流になっているが、果たして中3日という博打をするのか?
個人的には五分五分の可能性と読んでいるが・・・。
第6戦までもつれたら総力戦になるだろうし、特にタイガースは岩田・メッセのセットで考えているかもしれない。
実際の先発投手は異なるかもしれないが、論点を絞る意味で今後の展望(予想)は、この順番を叩き台にして話を進めていく。
(次回記事にする第2戦以降の先発予想については、情勢を見極めて柔軟に変えるかもしれない)

【第1戦展望】
★投手について
内海・岩田両投手共に立ち上がりがポイントになる。
ここを凌げば中盤までは僅差の戦いが続いていくだろう。
だが一方で、原監督は内海が序盤で失点を重ねた場合は、スパッと見切る可能性がある。
そして体力を温存する形で第5戦以降に備える選択を取る気がする。
リリーフ陣については、ジャイアンツの山口・マシソンがシーズン終盤から何処まで状態を戻しているか?
出来れば初戦は、この二人を使って勝ちたいところ・・・。
この形を取れれば第2戦目以降は落ち着いた戦いになる。
投手陣も勿論だが、野手陣にも好影響を与えて「Gの野球」が出来るだろう。
タイガースの場合は、先発が踏ん張ってオ・スンファンに直接繋ぐのが理想的。
実際、1stステージの戦い方を見ていると、福原・安藤・松田等に対する信頼感が乏しい事を投手起用で感じた。
だが、そうは言っていられないのが現実だと思う。
上記のセットアッパー達が安定した投球を見せることが、オ・スンファンの負担を減らすことになる。
まさか初戦から抑え投手のイニング跨ぎはしないだろう・・・。

★打線について
タイガースが1stステージの重い流れを引きずっているのか?
逆に早めに内海を捉えて、打線に勢いが出てくるのか?
シリーズ全体の分岐点となる最初のポイントは、ここになるだろう。
ポイントはゴメスと福留
特にゴメスは東京ドームでは痛い一発を打たれている。
ラインドライブ気味の打球が多いゴメスだが、狭い東京ドームならスタンドに放り込む率は格段に上がる。
弱点がハッキリしている選手だが、失投は高確率で捉える確実性もある。
内海の持ち球で一番怖いのは、外のチェンジアップを待たれて甘く入ったケース。
攻略のポイントは最初の打席で、内角直球を意識させる事が出来るか?
ここを意識させれば、仮に外のチェンジアップが甘く入っても一発を打たれる確率は下がる。

G打線については正直どうなるか読めない。
実戦練習を積むために独立リーグ選抜と練習試合を行ったようだが、NPBの投手とは差があるのは否めない。
Gベンチも手探りで初戦に入る覚悟はあると思う。
重要なのは各打者の状態を早く見極めること。
阿部、坂本、村田、長野以外の各打者は、悪ければここでもスパッと変えてくると思う。
ジャイアンツの予想オーダーは以下の通り
① センター   長野
② ライト    橋本
③ ショート   坂本
④ キャッチャー 阿部
⑤ サード    村田
⑥ ファースト  アンダーソン
⑦ レフト    亀井
⑧ セカンド   片岡
①③④は不動だと思うが、他は読みづらい
2番は左の岩田が分かっていれば片岡を使ってくるかもしれないが、左右同じ打者が3人並ばないように首脳陣は考えると思う。
同じ理由も加味されて左でもアンダーソン起用と予想したが、彼の場合は現時点の状態がかなり良いので、間違いなく先発で使うと思う。
村田・亀井は外せない選手だが打順は正直分からない・・・。
橋本については守備面も考慮して当面は使ってくると思う。

★G打線のキーマンは?
初戦は作戦面で手堅くゲームを進めていくので打線は重くなりやすい。
シリーズを絶対有利に進めるなら阿部・村田の爆発が必須だが、初戦の場合は特に長野がポイントになると思う。
上記のオーダーを見て解るように、ジャイアンツの1番は「チャンスメーク」と「ポイントゲッター」両方の役割が必要になる。
Gの場合は下位打線でチャンスを作って上位に繋げるパターンが望めるので、長打力も必要になるし勝負強さも欲しい。
つまり、下位打線のバッティングを活かすも殺すも長野次第になる可能性が高い。
今シーズンの彼の得点圏打率(.358)を見れば分かるように非常に勝負強い。
特に後半戦は彼の「ここイチ」でのバッティングは大きく優勝に貢献した。
又、今シーズンの阿部・村田のバッティングを見ていると、正直「音無し」で終わる可能性は十分にある。
その場合は後半戦に見せた「1点を奪いに行く野球」が必須になる。
そうなると1番・長野が数多く出塁してチャンスメークすることが重要になる。
チャンスが出来なければ得点は生まれない。
そしてあえてキーマンをもう一人挙げるなら片岡だろう。
理由は長野と同じだが、彼の場合は特にチャンスメークで力を発揮してくれれば、走力も有るので長野の勝負強いバッティングが活きてくる。
中軸で得点できなくても、下位から長野への攻撃で1点を奪うことが出来る。
筆者は片岡の短期決戦の強さ、大舞台の強さに期待している。
日本シリーズ、WBCで魅せた大胆なプレーの数々は今も記憶に残っている。

★Gにとって最悪の第1戦とは?
初戦タイガース勝利の場合、6ー1や7ー1という大差になるスコアは避けたい
ペナントレース中よく言われている「どうせ負けるなら大差で敗けた方が良い」という考え方は、クライマックスシリーズでは禁物。
1勝というアドバンテージは数字以上に重いハンデになる。
投手起用、コンディション等では圧倒的有利な状況ということ。
怖いのは試合勘だが、これは試合を重ねていけば必ず取り戻せる。
仮に負けが先行したとしても、浮足立たなければ2012年の大逆転劇のような展開になる可能性は十分残されている。
ファーストステージから試合を行っている相手チームは、我々が考えているほど精神的にも肉体的にも余裕は無い。
そういう状況の中で「相手に勢いをつける敗戦」は有利な状況を一気に壊しかねない。
特にファーストステージで元気がなかった阪神打線がここで爆発すると、一気にシリーズの流れが出来てしまう事も十分にある。
特にゴメスに気持ちよく打たれると、2戦目以降に影響するので気をつけたい。
07年CSでの「ウッズ大爆発」と同じ事だけは避けたい・・・。


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  223. borderless より:

    昨日の試合は初回のゴメス選手の本塁打が余計でしたね。セペタ選手の代打の場面は、一打同点・逆転を狙ったのであれば最善だったと思います。一打席のみの結果で非難されてしまうのは可哀想な気もしますが、見ている側は結果での評価が最優先してしまうので仕方ないって処でしょうかね。一戦目は真剣な試合から遠ざかっていたせいか巨人の打者が速球に対応しきれない感じでしたが、試合終盤は対応し出した感じもした?ので、今日以降に期待ですかね。

  224. hideo469998 より:

    BHさん
    いつもコメント有難うございます
    私も同じことを思っていました・・苦笑
    ただ・・仰るとおり12年と違うのは
    相手先発の顔ぶれですね・・正直今日勝たないと厳しいです・・。
    ただ、メッセを潰せば一気に流れがくるような気もしています
    詳しくは新記事で触れています。。
    杉内・・ふんばってくれ・・・祈り・・。

  225. hideo469998 より:

    borderlessさん
    いつもコメント有難うございます
    そうでしたか・・「Chernobog」というハンドルネームは
    勿論覚えています
    確か・・今シーズンは序盤の中日戦や広島戦に投稿されましたよね
    こちらこそ失礼しました・・汗
    さて・・厳しい連敗でしたね
    新記事に詳しい雑感を書いていますが
    初戦は許容範囲だったんですが、2戦目はさすがに凹みました
    そうですね・・大田は悪くないですね
    シーズンの最後はバットが遠回りになる「悪い大田」だったんですが
    昨日のスイングは修正されてましたね
    メッセで使うかは微妙ですが・・能見に対しては使うかもしれませんね
    今の状態ではメッセ攻略はかなり厳しいですが
    杉内のベストピッチを期待しましょう・・・。

  226. hideo469998 より:

    oosakag20110311さん
    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    打線も全く音無ではなかったので
    そこは救いだと思います
    問題は長野ですね。。。。
    彼が塁上を賑やかにしないと厳しいです
    4~6番は各駅停車揃いなので一発が出ないと。。。苦笑
    まあ、阪神も中盤以降は湿っていたので
    澤村に頑張ってもらいましょう

  227. hideo469998 より:

    borderlessさん
    コメント有り難うございます
    氏の見立てに同意です
    昨日はゴメスの一発でGの野球が出来なくなりました
    巷ではセペダの代打に非難が集まっていますが
    そんなに悪いスイングではなかったので
    仕方ないかな?と思っています
    ただ、片岡の勝負強さにかける策もありとは思いますが。。
    まあ、世間が言うほど阪神打線が良いわけでも有りません
    澤村に期待ですね

  228. hideo469998 より:

    ジャイアンヒロセさん
    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    昨日は負けましたね
    やはり、内海のような球威で押せないタイプは
    CSでは博打になります
    日シリは彼に慣れていない打者が多いので通用しますが。。
    まあ阪神打線も決して良くはないと思っていますので
    澤村がストライク先行、フォークが良ければメッセと
    勝負になります
    序盤で2点リードする展開にして澤村の投球が大胆になれば。。
    P.S
    競馬もお好きなんですよね?
    管理機能の『コメンター管理』で
    登録してあるコメンターさんの他blogでのコメントを
    読むことが出来るので知りました
    私はミスターシービーの出現・皇帝ルドルフ登場で
    競馬にのめり込みました
    馬券を本格的に買い始めたのはメリーナイスの頃かな。。笑
    中央、地方問わず競馬場にも通っていた事が懐かしい。。
    いよいよ本格的なG1シーズンですね
    最近はあまり馬券を買っていませんが
    競馬は情報が命なので必ずチェックしてますよ  笑

  229. borderless より:

    こんばんは。覚えていらっしゃるか否か分かりませんが、以前、「Chernobog」という名で僅かの間、ここに投稿させて頂いていた者です。スポーツナビの仕様が変わった際、その名が使えなくなってしまい、登録し直していたもので、申し上げるのが遅くなり済みませんでした。昨日の試合も負けてしまいましたね。シーズン中もそうでしたが、危険球を当てられた方がその後に登板した投手の調子にかかわらず俄然流れを引き寄せてしまいがちで、その典型というような試合でしたね。打線は相手次第とはいえ、岩田投手がいつもより球が高く行きがちでフライが多くなる等、序盤から崩せそうだったんですけど・・・結果論ですが橋本選手の併殺が痛かったって処でしょうか。大田選手は1打席だけだったですけど、アウトだったとはいえ外野の深い所迄飛ばしてましたから、故障が癒えてない長野選手若しくはあまり調子が良さそうでない橋本選手のどちらかと入れ替えてみるのも良さそうですね。荒削りでも本塁打を期待出来て俊足でもある選手が1番でも下位でも居れば相手からしても嫌なものでしょうしね。

  230. BH より:

    こんばんは。
    第2戦が終わった夜にコメントしています。あまりに状況が2年前と酷似していて困ってしまいました(苦笑)。スコアから、球審から、巨人の攻撃が好守に阻まれている点、井端が活躍してる点などなど。だから2年前の大逆転が再現できるなどというつもりはありません。そのまえに何とかしたいところ。
    明日は大幅に打線を組み替えてくるでしょうね。ただ、ほとんどの打者が点にならない程度にそこそこ打ってるのが逆に「性質が悪い」。片岡と大田を使ってほしいんですが。
    なんというんでしょうか、つまらないですよね、試合が。かなりテンションが下がってます・・・。

  231. borderless より:

    こんにちは。今シーズンに限って言えば、阪神は澤村・小山投手を、巨人はメッセンジャー・岩田投手を苦手にしていて、杉内・能見投手はその時の調子次第、内海・藤浪投手は対戦が少なかったので同様に調子次第って処でしょうか。救援陣は、今シーズンの巨人はずっと不安定でしたが、高木京投手がシーズン最後に復活した事で少しマシ?になった気もしますが、安心とまではいかないですかね。阪神の方も1stステージでは呉投手頼みで他に任せられないという有様ですし、接戦が続いた場合は結構苦しそうです。打線は個々の能力・調子は阪神の方が数字的にも上ですが、1stステージを見ていた限り、広島の投手陣が良かったとはいえ、チャンスは幾度も作りながら1点を取りに行く勝負所でのベンチの采配があまりにもお粗末と言うか勝負勘の無さで、結局本塁打の1点しか奪えなかった処から、巨人の投手陣が大崩れしなければ抑える確率が高いと思います。ただチャンスでマートン選手を迎えた場合はやはり脅威でしょうけどね。巨人の打線は、シーズン最後の連戦中、目立たなかったですが村田選手が結構らしいバッティングをしていたので期待したい処ですが、今シーズンは何度も裏切ってきているので、やはりアンダーソン選手の前にいかにチャンスを作れるかって処でしょうかね。

  232. oosakag20110311 より:

    いやー,しっかりゴメスに打たれて負けましたね.まあ,4点とられて以降は何とか抑えたのでそれで良しとするしかありませんね.16日の試合が大事な試合になります.逆境に強い澤村に期待したいです.

  233. ジャイアンヒロセ より:

    管理人さんお邪魔します。
    いよいよ始まりますね。
    いつも通りの鋭い分析・予想ありがとうございました。
    全面同意です。
    管理人が以前おっしゃっていたように、私も相手どうこうというよりもジャイアンツ自身が自分の戦いができるかどうかだと思います。
    試合勘うんぬんは言っても仕方がないし、そこも含めたところの戦いであり、その分の?1勝のアドバンテージでもあると思います。
    苦しいシーズンでしたが、勝負所は落とさずに優勝したことにより、選手たちはある意味一皮むけたと思います。(言い回しが今イチですが)
    だから精神的にもかなり余裕を持って臨めるのではないでしょうか。
    去年までとは違った意味で楽しみで仕方がありません。