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心の中のGプロテクトリスト 2014編 〜S相川に対するFA補償を予想する〜

皆様ご無沙汰しています。
衝撃のCS4連敗敗退のショックでシーズン総括もせず申し訳ありませんでした。
この間、様々な方からメールを頂きましたが、ロペス退団、グリエル獲得へ??などモチベーションが下がる話題が続いていましたので・・・意欲が・・・苦笑。
個人的に絶対止めて欲しいと考えていたグリエル獲得が無くなりそうなので更新意欲が甦りました。
それでも更新を休んでいる間に結構色んな記事を下書きしていました。
①シーズン総括
②大田は来シーズン覚醒するのか?
③少し限界を感じ始めた坂本のバッティングについて
④西村先発転向、澤村リリーフ転向の是非
⑤金城、相川の獲得について
⑥相川獲得で生ずるヤクルトへのプロテクトリスト
⑤ドラ1岡本の将来性
⑥新外国人投手2名を分析
⑦グリエル獲得を反対する理由とは?
⑦はボツになりますが、ちょっと時期を逸したネタも有ります
それ以外はマイペースでアップしていきたいと思います。
さて、そこで今回の記事ですが、先日GからSへ人的補償のプロテクトリストが渡ったようなので、まずはこの話題から記事にしていこうと思います。


リストを作る上で順番に考えていこうと思います
まず1stステップとして筆者の私的評価でのプロテクトリストから考えます

1)現時点での私的プロテクトリスト 
★以下はヤクルト側の事情は考慮していない
※カッコ外は無条件プロテクト
投手 15人
菅野、内海、杉内、沢村、小山、大竹
山口、西村 (松本竜、今村、笠原、宮国、田口、平良、高木京)
捕手 1人
小林
内野手 7人
阿部、片岡、村田、坂本 (中井、奥村、和田)
外野手 5人
長野、亀井、大田、橋本、高橋由

主なリスト漏れ選手
投手
久保、香月、青木、福田、田原、江柄子、阿南、土田、公文
捕手
実松、加藤、河野、鬼屋敷
内野手
寺内、井端、藤村、辻
外野手
鈴木、矢野、横川、隠善

やはり個人的には伸びしろを感じる有望な若手は優先的に残したい
特に投手は起用する枠が広いので少々荒削りな面が残っていても「戦える武器」を持っていれば残しておきたい。
逆に年齢的には30前後の中堅選手はチャンスを与える意味でも放出した方が良いと思う。


次にヤクルトの補強ポイントを考えます
2)ヤクルトの補強ポイント
①投手全般
②守備力が高い外野手
③将来性の高いショート
恐らくスワローズとしては①で希望に合う選手が漏れていたら間違いなく取ると思う
しかし②、③では余程の選手ではない限り金銭を選ぶことを予想する


これらを考慮に入れてG側がスワローズに渡した最終プロテクトリストは以下と考える
3)最終判断でのプロテクトリスト
投手 16人
菅野、内海、杉内、沢村、小山、大竹
山口、西村、松本竜、今村、笠原、宮国、田口、平良、高木京、公文、田原
捕手 1人
小林
内野手 5人
阿部、片岡、村田、坂本、中井
外野手 5人
長野、亀井、大田、橋本、高橋由


リスト漏れの主な選手
投手
久保、香月、青木、福田、江柄子、阿南、土田
捕手
実松、加藤、河野、鬼屋敷
内野手
井端、藤村、和田、奥村、辻、寺内
外野手
鈴木、矢野、横川、隠善
★理由
スワローズは同じイースタンリーグなので各選手のポテンシャルは把握している
若い選手に対しては特にシビアに評価するだろう。
以下は指名する可能性が低い選手
香月:実戦派だが監督によって評価が分かれる投手
青木:ワンポイント投手と補償金を天秤にかけたら。。
福田:怪我が多く、本来の切れが戻っていない
鬼屋敷・河野らの若手捕手は補強ポイントから逸脱している
実松・加藤のベテラン捕手は現在の状況からすれば最優先ではない。
藤村:内野守備に不安があるし、ショートは厳しい。
奥村:セカンドとして育成中で芽が出るのは先になる
和田:サードが中心で攻守に渡って育成初期段階
矢野:飯原と役割が被るし、年齢は矢野が上になる
鈴木:今の戦力では代走専門の鈴木を活かす野球は難しい
   年齢的な事も考慮すれば、その役割は比屋根で可能と考える
横川:同タイプのユウイチ、武内がいる
隠善:センターを任せる守備力はない


ここからは指名する可能性がある選手をあげる
4)ヤクルトが獲得する可能性があるプロテクト外選手を考える
土田は完全にリリーフタイプ
入団1年目は良い直球を投げていたが、プロの怖さを覚えた去年は腕が振れていなかった印象がある
判断に迷うところ。。。
江柄子は球種も多く使い勝手の良い投手だが、既存のS中堅クラスと大きな差はない
久保は万全なら十分戦力になるが、怪我が多い投手なので判断が難しい
阿南はGに移籍してからファームでは先発で結果を出し続けているので、S編成部や去年2軍を指揮していた真中監督も実力は十分把握している。
プロ初勝利もSから奪ったもの。。。
巷では名が出ていないが選択する可能性は十分あると思う。
但し、Sには左の軟投派の代表格である石川がいるので、同じタイプを避ける可能性も否めない。
タイプ的にはリリーフ向きではない。
去年、当blogのプロテクトリストに入れた辻については、スワローズ編成部がどう評価してるか。。。
シーズンオフの国際大会で久しぶりに彼のバットスイングを見たが、外のボールを逆方向に持っていくバットコントロールは非凡な才能を持っているが、内角直球に対する弱点はまだ改善されていない。
この1年で相当バットを振り込んでいるようなので、来年から徐々に改善されるかもしれないので残って欲しいが。。。
個人的には来年のファームで結果を残して一軍の足固めにしないと大望は厳しいと考える。
井端はショートとして使えて年々衰えてはいるが、内野の控えとしては十分な力を保っている。
また、同タイプの田中浩よりも使えるポジションの幅は大きい。
しかし、それでも田中浩と役割が被る部分が大きいので悩ましい。。。
寺内は内野手としての守備力はかなり高いが、年齢的にはベテランになってきた。
そして何より同じ右打者の大引を獲得したので彼を選ぶ可能性はかなり低くなった(若手の谷内もいる)
松本哲はSの弱点である「高レベルでセンターを守れる外野手が不足している点」を解決できる存在。
有望候補である上田はバッティングでは松本以上に魅力的だが伸び悩んでいるのが現状。
特に外野としては素晴らしい脚力があるにもかかわらず打球判断が拙く、センターとして安定感があるとは言えない。
比屋根も良い選手だがこちらも伸び悩んでいる。
さすがに飯原がセンターを守っているのには目を疑った・・・・。
バレンティンがレフトを守るのでセンターは広い守備範囲を求められる。
雄平とミレッジはセンターとしては心もとないのも事実だろう。
球団が期待する上田の更なる成長を待つか?
それとも松本哲を入れて刺激させるか?


5)ヤクルトの最終決断を予想する
今年のSは積極的にFAに参入し、懸案だった先発Pとショートを補強した。
新監督で臨む来季にかける意気込みは相当強い。
しかし、それでも他球団と比べると投手陣が弱いのは否めない
特に投手陣は外国人に頼らざるをえない。
その為の資金として補償金をプールしておくことも悪くない判断だと思う。
逆に資金不足という訳ではないのなら話は全く変わってくる。
二軍でG若手をつぶさに見ていた真中監督の意向で選んでくると思う
しかしながら当ブログの最終結論は・・・
「ヤクルトは相川のFA補償として金銭を要求する」と考える。
だが日ハム、ロッテへのFA補償次第で様相がガラッと変わる可能性はある。
ロッテは金銭を選ぶと予想しているが、日ハムは読めない。
両球団への補償が中堅野手だとすると寺内、松本哲あたりがかなり現実味を帯びる。
投手だとしたら土田、久保がクローズアップされるだろう。
以上 敬称略


追伸
報道では矢野、由伸という名が出ていたが、由伸が漏れている可能性は限りなくゼロに近い。
有望選手(特に投手)が漏れるようにするための撒き餌だと思う。
また 守備力が衰え気味で、しかもオフに肘を手術した矢野をあえてスワローズが選ぶ可能性は極めて低い。


追記訂正です
下記のコメント欄でmaipaceさんから御指摘頂いてFA補償のルールを勘違いしていた事が判明しました
非常に情けないですが、訂正させて下さい
当ブログの最終結論は全額金銭ではなく土田投手を最有力候補と変更します
maipaceさん御指摘有難うございました


以上
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  439. hideo469998 より:

    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    <自分は今回はお金は気にせず来るかと思ったんですが FAとかで使いすぎたのか案外最初から若手狙いだったかもしれないです
    流石に鋭い御意見ですね
    私もこれが中堅クラスを選択しなかった理由だと思っています
    あまり巷では言われていませんが
    FA補強意外に新外国人にも一億超使ってるので
    久保辺りを獲得しなかったと
    勝手に想像しています

  440. hideo469998 より:

    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    奥村に決まりましたね
    少し意外な選択でしたが
    奥村が外れていたのは予想通りでした
    Gの思惑では巷の予想通りピッチャーを
    選択すると予想していたのでしょうね
    私も彼を高く評価していたので残念ですが
    新天地で頑張って欲しいと思っています

  441. cat より:

    こんにちは。この選択は予想外でした。
    巨人もまさか未知の若手には来ないだろうと思った点は甘く2年続けて若手を取られたことは今後のドラフト含めいいことではないですが 
    自分はネットはそんなに見ないので予想ですが一岡投手の時と同じく奥村選手が超逸材扱いされてるんじゃないかと思いますが
    確かにいい選手だし将来セカンド有力候補ですが 少なくとも藤村を抜かないとスタメンはないし ヤクルトは下も野手は悪くないので頑張らないと 一岡投手のようにポジション確約ほど甘くはないと思います。
    ヤクルトとしては野手より投手だと思うので多分管理人さんのリストが合っていて田口や平良も守られてたかもですね
    自分は今回はお金は気にせず来るかと思ったんですが FAとかで使いすぎたのか案外最初から若手狙いだったかもしれないです
    今季を言うなら野手ならまっちゃんが取られなくて良かったです
    人気選手でファンの反感もですが まっちゃんがヤクルトセンターなんかに入られたら外野が固くなってしまうので ヤクルトの大量失点が投手だけのせいにされてますが 野手も捕手も大概だと思います。
    巨人的には藤村がセカンドに定着が1番理想ですが 一岡投手がいなくなって江柄子にチャンスが回ったように 奥村選手がいなくなって次のセカンド候補頑張って欲しいです
    藤村応援してますが ただの願望ですが吉川とか川相ジュニアとか出てきてくれたら嬉しいです。
    ヤクルトは正直賭けに出たなとしか自分は感じてません。自分なら辻を選びます 多分辻も和田も外れてたろうから 

  442. oosakag20110311 より:

    公文や田原の代わりに奥村を持って行かれました.篠塚の再来と期待していただけにガッカリです.今年の二軍戦観戦の楽しみがかなり減りました.
     ヤクルトの眼力に脱帽です・・・

  443. hideo469998 より:

    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    現在、更新が不定期になって申し訳ないです
    昨年同様、キャンプ期間中は連続投稿の予定ですので
    暫く気長にお待ち頂ければ幸いです
    さてプロテクトの件ですが流石に鋭い人選ですね
    個人的には公文を外してほしくないのですが
    去年の内容では首脳陣の評価が厳しいかもしれませんね

  444. oosakag20110311 より:

    復帰おめでとうございます.
    私も,ヤクルトがFAで大引選手・成瀬投手を取る前に,巨人フロントになったつもりでプロテクトリストを作っていました.
    管理人さんとの違いは,
    投手で久保・香月・青木,内野手で寺内・辻がプロテクトに入り,
    代わりに笠原・田口・平良・公文・田原がプロテクトリストから外れるというものです.
    内野手で寺内・辻をプロテクトに入れたのは,(大引選手の獲得前だったので)ヤクルト側がショートをできる内野手を欲しがると思ったからですし,久保・香月・青木をプロテクトに入れたのは,原監督の,久保・香月・青木に対する評価の高さを考えたからです(現フロント陣に,原監督に張り合える人がいるとは思えません.)
    で,予想としては,公文か田原をヤクルトに持って行かれると予想しています.
    ヤクルトが大引選手を獲得したので,辻のプロテクトはなくなるかもしれませんが,(1軍控えで守備が唯一安定している)寺内をプロテクトから外すとは思えないので,公文か田原がプロテクトから外れることに変わりはないと思います.
    希望としては,捕手陣が手薄になったヤクルトが,實松か加藤を持っていってくれないかなと思っていたのですが,巨人を戦力外に成った井野捕手をヤクルトが獲得したのでその線もなくなりましたね.
    個人的には,自分の予想が外れることを願っています.

  445. hideo469998 より:

    コメント有り難うございます
    御返事遅れてすみません
    端末を買い換えたので設定に手間がかかっていました
    さて、プロテクトは難しいですよね
    鈴木については仰る通り、プロテクトすべきだと思います
    ヤクルトうんぬんではなく、彼のプライドを尊重すべきかもしれません
    私が外したのはヤクルトが取るはずないと
    たかをくくってるせいです。。苦笑
    それと、FAルールについては今回非常に勉強になりました
    こういうblogを続けていると、自身の固定観念や間違った認識を
    改めることができるのがとても有意義です
    追伸
    BHさんのblogいつも楽しく拝見しています
    カープファンの息子さんをはじめ、野球に興味を持つ人が
    周りに沢山いる環境は羨ましい限りです
    子供が自分と同じく野球に興味を持ってるのは
    親として嬉しいですよね 笑

  446. hideo469998 より:

    コメント有り難うございます
    そうなんですよ。。
    私は若手が華開いてGの中核選手になってほしいという思いが
    強すぎるのかもしれませんね 苦笑
    公文は迷走中ですが。。。。
    江柄子についてのエピソードは初耳でした
    なるほど、桑田が好きそうなタイプですよね

  447. hideo469998 より:

    コメント有り難うございます
    一岡ショックの件、流石のご意見です
    私もその通りだと思います
    一岡については仮に残ったとして考えたら
    去年のGリリーフ陣の状況ならチャンスは例年より多かったと思います
    但し、Gではあのように腕を振れていなかったと思います
    彼の場合、若いチームである今のカープに水があっていたと思います
    ただ。。あの投げ方では登板過多になると故障必須ですが。。
    今回、私は土田を外しましたが
    彼も一岡のように腕が振れたら大事な場面を任せる資質を
    十分に持っていると思うので出してあげたら変わるかもしれません

  448. cat より:

    こんにちは。コメントありがとうございます。
    管理人さんは片岡さん押しなんですね。自分は2年目も活躍とは限らないことと、もし活躍したらもっとやっかいで助っ人に頼りすぎることに反対だからです。片岡さんは西武時代怪我が多く正直1年持たないんではと心配してたんで怪我なく無事に1年過ごせたことだけでも何か十分満足でそれに勝負強いし
    色々細かいルールあるんですね。勉強になりました。
    自分の予想は即戦力投手(1軍ある程度経験あり)ですが井野が第2捕手もあれなんで捕手の可能性もあるかもですね
    素人が失礼なんですが他の方も言われる通り管理人さんのリストは未知の若手を守りすぎかなとは正直感じます。
    正直イースタン見る限りでも公文が守られて江柄子、土田が外れるはちょっとないと思います。イースタンは勝つことも大事ですが使いたい選手優先なのがわりとわかりやすいです。
    特にCSでも阪神巨人連合軍でも桑田さんに講師に来ていただいたとき投手野手5人ずつモニターになった時でも選ばれて監督自身が先発でもと名指しまでされてる江柄子は多分外れないような
    今回は地方に飛ばされるわけでもないし引っ越しとか転校とか単身赴任とかそんな問題も出ないしまだ良い方かなと 住むとこは大事だしまずは家族ですよね  

  449. takuhonomasa より:

    レポートお待ちしておりました。
    人的補償。
    昨年の一岡でGファンは過剰にショックを受けているように感じています。一岡もシーズン通して働けた訳ではなく、実力を一時的に発揮できたことは、喜ばしいと思ってます。
    ファンは、若手投手と野手に期待をしてしまいますが、ドラフト中位以下で早期に頭角を表すことが出来なかった選手が、数年後に活躍するということは非常に稀です。
    そういう意味で大累、坂口、土田、公文は仕方ないかなと考えます。(大累は2位ですが、、、)
    獲られて痛いのは、昨年兆しを見せた江柄子と田原です。
    是非プロテクトして欲しいところです。
    辻が難しいです。
    あとは、管理人様とほぼ同様です。

  450. BH より:

    遅いコメントすみません。夕べパソコンを開けなかったため・・・。
    更新ありがとうございました。人的補償もおそらくもうすぐ決まりますね。巨人からの移籍者が決まるのは、ヤクルトが各球団に補償を出した後でしょうか。鳥をどうするとか騒いでるので(笑)もうちょっとかかるでしょうかね。
    私はカトケンが危ないんじゃないかと思ってました(実松じゃなくカトケンなのは、いなくなると内海が困るため。ただでさえ阿部のコンバートで一番困ってるのは内海かと)が、井野の入団でその線は薄くなりました。でもカトケンと井野の差はかなりのものだと思ってますけど・・。
    うちのヤクルトファンに聞いてみたところ、監督が「外野がほしい」みたいに言ってるのは、投手がほしいための作戦などではなく、ほんとに外野がほしいんじゃないか・・・だそうです。そこまで深いことは何も考えてない可能性が結構高い。うちに上手い外野手など一人もいないからって(苦笑)。本人的には松っちゃんがほしい、だそうです。
    確かに、投手はほしいでしょうけど、同程度のどんぐりの背比べの投手はヤクルトにもいっぱいいるし・・・まあ、わかりませんけどね。ひとつ、鈴木はプロテクトするのではと思います。件のヤクルトファン曰く、「いても使いこなせない(苦笑)し、年も金も高い」のでヤクルトにはいらないとは思いますが、巨人としては絶対守りたい選手かなと思います。
    私も補償金の額までは全く考えていませんでしたし、2度目だと変わってくるのも知りませんでした。正直、書き物読まない人間なので、いろんなブログを読むことで制度を覚えたりしてるので結構テキトーにしか頭に入っておらず、私も勉強になりました。
    ・・・グリエルが来なくてホッとしました。

  451. cat より:

    こんにちは。寒い日が続いてますが体調気を付けないとですね。
    日ハム、ロッテの動向次第というのはあると思うんですが実は今回は予想してる選手が数名います。ただの予想ですが
    それとは別でハムとロッテですが ヤクのリスト漏れ投手が欲しい球団が失礼ながらあるとは思えません。若手野手の有望株ならいい素材が多いと感じますがハムは外野不動。大引さん小谷野さん抜けてもOKなくらい野手がいるなら欲しい選手なんてないような。
    ロッテは外野は充実 内野はあまり知らないですが 案外どちらも金銭の可能性あるかななんて考えてます
    由伸なんて外れるはずもない名前を出したのは心理戦ではなく投手が欲しいってわかりやすいサインかなと感じたんですが
    実際リスト外れそうな野手で危険なのはまっちゃんくらいです。他の選手は守備は同等かマシ程度 これでは意味ないです。
    まっちゃんは人気選手 これをどこまで球団が評価するか
    オフのヤクの補強見てても期待の若手より即戦力投手狙いな気がします。こう考えるとかなり限られるんですが
    けど管理人さんの言われる通り金銭が実は1番賢い選択な気がします
    余談ですが 自分もグリエルは反対でした。多分管理人さんとは理由違いそうですが 来ないだろうとも思ってましたが
    ロペスは仕方ない面と残念な面とそれぞれ理由違うけどあります。ただ巨人に長くはいないだろうとは思ってました残念だけど 

  452. giantsougon より:

    鈴木の代走としての期待値は非常に高く、将来のコーチも有力なので、プロテクト漏れすることはないでしょう。
    逆に、若手投手はもっと外すでしょうね。
    どうせ、とられても一人ですしね。
    松本竜、田口、平良、公文は外れると思っています。
    ヤクルトも未知数の若手に行くぐらいなら金銭のほうが良いと判断する可能性があります。
    ただ、逆に野手では、和田と辻はプロテクトするでしょうね。
    将来の4番というのは巨人には急務であり、大田と岡本で行ける保証もありませんからね。
    平良や田口は期待は大きいですが、今村、宮国と比べて年齢に大きな差もありませんし、投手は今後も即戦力投手で埋めることも可能ですからね。
    松本哲也もプロテクトするのかなと思っています。

  453. hideo469998 より:

    コメント有難うございます
    ご無沙汰しております
    catさんはお元気でしたか?
    さて本題ですが他の方が御指摘くださった通り
    金銭という線はかなり薄いようです。。
    追記で訂正しましたが
    土田あたりの若手投手が有力でしょうね
    年俸が安く、即戦力になる。。
    グリエル断念は個人的にはグッドニュースです
    最大の理由は片岡に挽回のチャンスを与えてほしい。。
    村田のように二年目でやり返す確率高いと思っています
    守備も後半はスッカリ慣れて安定感増したし。。
    プレイスタイルも好きなんですよ 笑

  454. hideo469998 より:

    コメント有難うございます
    これは色んなご意見があると思います
    松本哲や鈴木をプロテクトするという御意見もあって当然です
    実際、特に鈴木、寺内については悩みました
    若手については個人的には成長する過程をみたいという思いが強いので、考え方が少し偏っているかもしれません

  455. hideo469998 より:

    コメント有難うございます
    ご無沙汰しています
    さて御質問の件ですが
    ストライクゾーンで勝負する事をメインに要求して
    四球を嫌がる監督は彼を評価しないと思います
    例えるなら権藤さんとか。。
    逆にボール球を使って相手に的を絞らせない配球や
    ボールを微妙に動かして芯を外す狙いで低めに集めようと
    テクニックで討ち取る事を評価する監督は彼を使いたがるでしょうね
    ザックリですが、こんな感じです

  456. hideo469998 管理人 より:

    コメント有難うございます
    そうだったんですね。。
    ランクの違いと二度目で変わるようで。。。
    私は年俸の0.8倍(Aランク人的補償無し)だと思い込んでいました
    やはりルールを事前に確認するべきだと。。。
    お恥ずかしい限りです
    そうなると土田が最有力だと思います
    貴重な御指摘有難うございました
    また是非お越し下さい

  457. maipace より:

    初めまして。
    補償がオール金銭ですか?
    失礼ですが自分的には99%ないと思ってます。
    理由は相川選手は今季推定11000万の年俸を貰ってますがFAは二度目となりますので30%の3300万となり人的補償との差は僅か1100万となるからです。
    ドラフト下位の選手ですら契約金は2~3000万はかかるのにその選択はありえないと思ってます。
    仮にコスト面を考えて中堅選手を断念したとしても有望と思える若手選手を獲得するはずと考えてます。

  458. airair より:

    久々の更新、心待ちにしておりました。
    補償は金銭かもしれないというのは完全に頭に無かったです。
    香月はご指摘の通り、年俸や年齢で想定外だと思います。ちなみに、監督によって評価が別れるというのはどんな印象でしょうか?香月ファンとして是非聞きたいです!
    原監督の前半戦の香月推しは凄まじかった(実際香月のコンディションも最高だった)ですけど、確かに他の監督ではそこまでの評価はないかもしれませんね。