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2015年 プロ野球順位予想

今回は毎年恒例の順位予想を行う。

その前に去年の順位予想を振り返りたい。

【2014順位予想】
優勝 読売ジャイアンツ
2位 中日ドラゴンズ
3位 広島東洋カープ
4位 阪神タイガース
5位 横浜DeNAベイスターズ
6位 東京ヤクルトスワローズ

【2014結果】
優勝 読売ジャイアンツ
2位 阪神タイガース
3位 広島東洋カープ
4位 中日ドラゴンズ
5位 横浜DeNAベイスターズ
6位 東京ヤクルトスワローズ

又、去年は確率で順位予想を考えてみた。

【2014セントラルリーグ順位予想・割合%】
     優勝 2位 3位 4位 5位 6位
読売   95  5  0  0  0  0
中日    0 30 30 25 10  5
広島    0 30 30 20 20  0
阪神    5 20 20 25 30  0
横浜    0  5 10 15 25 45
ヤクルト  0 10 10 15 15 50

結果を受けての感想は「ほぼ予想通りの結果」と考えている。
但し、阪神のゴメスの私的評価はそれほど高くはなかったので、阪神の最終順位を4位予想としたが、ゴメスが打点王になるとは思わなかった。
それと中日については、和田の離脱と先発陣の駒が最後まで揃わなかった事が痛かった。 

では2015年の順位予想を始める。
まず、私の考えを皆さんに知ってもらう為に各順位の割合から。

 【2015セントラルリーグ順位予想・割合%】
     優勝 2位 3位 4位 5位 6位
読売   45 25 15 10  5  0
阪神   30 25 20 20  5  0
広島   25 30 25 15  5  0
中日    0 10 15 25 30 20
ヤクルト  0  5 15 15 30 35
横浜    0  5 10 15 25 45

そして最終順位予想は

【2015セントラルリーグ順位予想】
1位 読売
2位 阪神
3位 広島
4位 中日
5位 ヤクルト
6位 横浜

以上が筆者の順位予想となる。

筆者の順位予想で一番重要に考えているポイントは「リリーフ投手の力量」
ここで言う力量とは「層の厚さと個々の能力」であって、どちらの要素も長いペナントレースを戦い抜く上では欠かせない。

以前の当ブログ記事で各球団のリリーフ投手を考察した(2015セントラルリーグ 救援投手事情【プロ野球トピックス雑感 3月19日】)
ここで感じたのは横浜が他球団よりもリリーフ投手陣で劣っていること。
三上の故障が長引きそうな雰囲気なので、リリーフエースと抑えの両方を新戦力(ルーキーと新外国人)に頼らざるを得ないのは、予想する上では大きなマイナス。

同じことはヤクルトにも言える事。
オンドルセクについては個人的には高く評価しているが、予想する上で日本での実績がない投手を抑えにしなければならないチームを上位予想は出来ない。 

逆に言えば、彼らが評判通りの活躍、又はそれ以上の大活躍をすればチームの順位を上げると見ている。
この場合、横浜とヤクルトは他の要素も上手く噛み合えば、2位までの可能性もある。

4位予想の中日とは、両球団ともにディフェンス力(投手力・守備力)で劣っていることが、下位予想の理由ではあるが、攻撃力と野手の選手層では明らかに上回っている。
また、チーム全体の伸びシロも中日よりは多い。
筆者の考えでは優勝は考えられないが、上位球団にとっては例年以上に警戒すべき相手である。

以上 敬称略

今回は下位両チームの予想理由を簡単にまとめただけでしたが、次回からは球団別に詳しい戦力分析を行いたいと思います。
更新については記事が出来上がり次第、球団別で随時行います。

最後にパリーグについては簡単に順位だけ・・。

1位 福岡ソフトバンクホークス
2位 北海道日本ハムファイターズ
3位 オリックスバファローズ
4位 千葉ロッテマリーンズ
5位 埼玉西武ライオンズ
6位 東北楽天ゴールデンイーグルス

 
プロ野球ランキング

にほんブログ村 野球ブログ 読売ジャイアンツへ
   にほんブログ村

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  182. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    ジャムさん こんばんは
    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    下位予想の3球団は、正直言って差がないですし、
    去年と違って、いくつかのファクターが重なれば
    十分上位を狙えると思っています
    その場合、逆に中日は厳しくなるかな・・と・・。
    石山は良いピッチャーなんですけどね
    何というか・・キャッチャー次第で大きく化ける投手だと思います
    確かに甘さはありますが、制球も良いですし
    馬力も意外にあります。
    フォークの切れも十分三振が狙えるレベルです
    そういう意味で抑えの資質があると思ったんですが・・・。
    このフォークの使い方が鍵を握る投手ですよね・・・。

  183. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    na12さん はじめまして
    かなりコメント返信が遅れてしまい申し訳ありません
    確かに「失望」は若い選手には言い過ぎですよね
    失礼しました・・汗
    阿部の若い頃のエピソードは色々ありますよね
    工藤や桑田等には特に厳しく教えられたようですし
    ベンチ裏で泣いていたようで・・・。
    小林も色々な経験を経て素晴らしい捕手に成長して欲しいと思います
    いつもご贔屓にして頂き有り難うございます
    是非またコメントをお寄せください!

  184. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    ジャイアンヒロセさん こんばんは
    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    ディフェンス力ですか・・・今年も試合が重そうですね・・苦笑
    今年は正直全く読めません
    当日、馬が好気配となり、仮に好スタートでの好位置をキープすれば
    最後の直線である8月には「持ったまま」という状況も
    全く考えられない訳ではないです
    逆にスタートで大きく出遅れると馬群に沈んだまま・・とか
    直線差しきれないという競馬(失礼w)じゃなくて
    展開になるかもしれません・・・ww
    果たして原騎手はジャイアンツを1着に導けるでしょうか・・・。

  185. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    名無しの兎さん こんばんは
    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    なるほど、中日とベイについては見解が分かれてますね
    私も中日は正捕手候補の松井がダメな最下位候補でしたが
    結構良くなってるんですよね
    今年のオープン戦を数試合見ましたが、捕手として成長を感じました
    日ハムについては同意ですね
    近藤がマスクを被る状況は危険ですね
    大野の早期復帰が望まれます
    私が日ハム2位にしたのは消去法なんですよね
    オリックスは確かにピッチャーは良いんですけど
    今年は中継ぎPに疲労感を感じるのが心配です
    それを重視して入れ換えました
    下の3チームは上位とは力の差を感じます

  186. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    borderlessさん こんばんは
    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    確かに投手が失点しない要素は
    味方の守備が大きく作用すると思います
    深く同意します
    ただ。。それをブログで論じようとすると
    非常に解りにくい文章になるので
    私の文章力では厳しいです。。。汗
    投・打・守に分けて説明し
    走塁や各要素の相関関係については
    簡単な説明で終わらせています
    borderlessさんのように
    論理的に文章を纏めたら苦労しないんですけど(^_^;)

  187. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    catさん こんばんは
    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    前回はこちらこそ失礼しました
    私はcatさんの本意をよく理解していたつもりでしたが
    逆に誤解をあたえてしまって・・・。
    反省ですm(__)m
    さて順位予想ですが
    阪神は私も強敵だと思います
    投打のバランスが良くなってきました
    V4ですか・・一昔前のGでは夢物語でしたが
    今はあと一歩のところまで来たんですね・・・。
    私も彼らGナインの勝利の執念に期待したいと思います

  188. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    zzzさん はじめまして
    コメント有り難うございます
    御質問の件ですが
    私なりに精一杯お答えします
    <巨人の打線は何故去年からずっとあまり打たなくなってしまったのでしょうか?
    ①コンパクトなスイングを意識し過ぎた弊害
    ②相手の研究に対して自分の進歩が遅れている
    私はこの2点を痛感しています
    ①については、簡単に言えば「しっかり振りきるスイング」ではなく
    当てにいくようなスイングが多いことですね
    逆方向を意識しすぎると陥りやすい失敗です
    ②については村田・坂本・長野に感じます
    特に村田と坂本はバッティングが技術的に頭打ち感があります。
    長野は何とか去年後半は乗り越えていましたが・・・。
    <村田が一軍に上がりましたが、ロッテとの一戦だけでしたが何か変わっていましたか?
    これについては正直分かりませんが・・・。
    恐らく元々数日で戻す予定だったと推察します
    ファームで下半身をイジメぬいたと報道されてるので
    内田さんのアドバイスと
    下半身を鍛え直して体のキレを良くする
    こんな考えだったと思っています。
    ご質問有り難うございました
    どうぞお気軽にまたお立ち寄りくださいませ!

  189. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    Yoshiさん こんばんは
    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    「捕手の力量」ですか。。。同意ですね
    とても重要な要素だと思います
    その為にも小林には頑張って貰いたいし
    失敗してもそこから学んで欲しいと思っています

  190. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    kickhiro7さん こんばんは
    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    kickhiro7さんは私よりもかなり年長の方なんですね
    V9ですか・・・
    私が物心ついて野球中継で記憶してるのは
    長嶋の引退試合が最初です。
    そうですね・・V9と比べると
    今のGは物足りないでしょうね
    雰囲気的には今のGはV9の最終年に似てますか・・・。
    大田には今の閉塞感を是非打ち破って欲しいですね

  191. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    BHさん こんばんは
    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    今年の予想はかなり悩みました・・・。
    久しぶりに全球団のファンの鼻息が荒いのではないでしょうか・・。
    予想は去年ほど自信は無いのですが
    正直、一番順位予想が難しいチームがGでした・・・笑
    下位予想の球団の守備力は同意です。
    今年は力が拮抗してるので
    こういうところで勝敗が分かれるケースが増えそうですね

  192. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    申し訳ありません
    只今、コメント返信が遅れています
    実は記事作成に追われていまして・・。
    あと5球団の戦力分析が残っていますので
    その目処が立ち次第、順次お返事します

  193. ジャム より:

    こんにちは、いよいよ開幕ですね。
    管理人さんがおっしゃる通りヤクルトと横浜は港では評価が高いですが下位の順位予想は妥当ですね。
    また管理人さんが重視するのはリリーフ陣ですか、ただ先発の質や量が高いか低いかによってリリーフの重要度が変わると考えます。
    その点中日は先発で化けそうなメンツが少なくてヤクルトと横浜は多いというのが順位予想割れてる理由ではと思います。
    そして我がヤクルトのリリーフ陣ですがイムチャンヨンの時代からずっと外人クローザーに頼ってるのでそろそろリリーフ陣安定のためにも日本人の抑えが欲しいです笑
    個人的には今は先発ですが管理人さんも去年セーブ王のダークホースと言っていただいた石山が個人的に収まって欲しいです。

  194. na12 より:

    管理人さん 初めまして!いつも高いレベルの視点でブログを書いてらっしゃるので 尊敬の気持ちで拝見しています。
    その管理人さんの順位予想が1位とは…心強い限りです。オープン戦を見ていると 心配や不安ばかりでしたから(苦笑)
    野手で20代が少ないのは寂しいですが シーズンは長いので大田には しっかり怪我を直してもらい 中井は守備をレベルアップして戻ってきてもらいたいです。
    あとは小林についてですが 管理人さんのおっしゃるように プロとアマの差を本人もヒシヒシ感じている状態なのかなっと思います。心にゆとりがないと視野も狭くなりますしね…。でもその視野を広げるのは経験の積み重ねしかないですよね。
    杉内のようなベテランでさえ 井口にデッドボールを当てたあと インスラを投げる選択肢が消えてピッチングが窮屈になったと話していた位ですから 小林の気持ちも分からなくはないのですが 使わないと…ですもんね。これは反省して今後に生かしてもらいたいです。(でも失望という言葉は ちょっとどうかな…とも感じました。生意気ですみません)
    阿部も ルーキー時代はリード面で叱られ 負けるたびに泣いていたそうですし 恐怖からサインを出せなくなった時期もあったと聞きましたし 阿部 自身 自殺したいと思った程思い詰めていたと告白していました。巨人のキャッチャーの重圧は私達には想像もつかない重さなのでしょうね。
    小林には 相川から学びながら ひとつひとつ乗り越えていってほしいと思っています!
                              

  195. ジャイアンヒロセ より:

    管理人さんお邪魔します。
    前の記事のことで恐縮ですが,大田の記事に対する反響の多さは,それだけ大田に対するG党の期待の表れと言ったところでしょうか。
    監督の本意はシーズン後になればわかるでしょうし,要はこの後大田が這い上がってブレイクしちゃえば問題なしです。
    それを期待しましょう。
    さて,順位予想ありがとうございました。
    「救援投手の厚さ」が重要なファクターというのには納得です。
    どうしても投手力を見る場合,先発陣の方に目が行きがちです。
    ただ常に先発完投できればいいのですが,なかなかそうはいかない。
    そうすると終盤のしのぎ合いを制するのは「救援力」ですね。
    確かに,近年上位に来るチームはリリーフ陣が安定しています。
    そう考えると,広島・ベイ・ヤクルトはやや厳しくなりますね。
    やはり長いシーズンを乗り切るのは投手力を含めた「デフェンス力」になりますね。
    そういう意味では,我がジャイアンツと阪神が一歩リードでしょうか。
    「デフェンス力」を考えると,三塁村田は外せないし,外野も長野・松ちゃん・亀井で決まりですよね。
    長拙文で失礼しました。
    管理人さん,またよろしくお願いします!

  196. 名無しの兎 より:

    おはようございます
    中日は多分最下位、良くて五位かなあと思います
    打線も投手陣も微妙ですし、捕手に至っては12球団で最下位でしょうから、それなら打線が自慢の横浜ヤクルトが上に来ると思います
    この2チームは何気に比較的キチンとした正捕手も居ますし
    特に横浜は投手陣の駒が揃いつつありますから梶谷筒香ロペスグリエル次第ではAクラスすら見えてきます
    パリーグは優勝に関してはオリとSBの一騎打ちと思います
    日ハムはその下かな?
    ただ日ハムは大野が不在で近藤と石川になるのが不安材料ですね

  197. borderless より:

    昨日の大田選手のお話ですが、見解の相違はともかく、井上・土井選手の例はそれ迄一軍での実績がなくても4番に抜擢される事はあるという事で取り上げただけで、ケースは当然違いますね。始まる前に明言するか否かについては、極論ではもし彼が開幕4番で先発すればあり?で、今回のように離脱ならなし?ってお話になり得ますよね。そういう視点では、ファン・マスコミ向けならあり、彼に対してのみで結果論からすればもう少し言い方を選んでも・・・?となりますね。彼がキャンプからオープン戦前半に掛けて4番として結果を出しつつあり、監督の言葉に乗せられて?ファンやマスコミ等が大きな期待を寄せてしまい、幸い?にも阿部・村田選手が4番に座れる状態でなかったにもかかわらず、彼はその期待に応えられず故障という結果を出してしまいました。そういう結果になった一因として監督の言葉が遡って取り沙汰されてしまうのも皆が大きな期待をしている故で必然と言えば必然なんでしょうけどね。残された時間はこれ迄程にはないでしょうけど、更に成長した姿で、復帰後即4番なんて夢?を実現して欲しいものです・・・とやはり期待してしまいますね。

  198. borderless より:

    おはようございます。個人的には順位予想というのは、毎年各選手の調子次第はともかく故障者次第で全く変わってしまうのでさほど考える事がないのですが、以前の優勝だけが目的の頃と違いプレーオフが導入されて以降の昨今は、1位、Aクラス、Bクラスで評価した方が良さそうな気がしますね。今季のセ・リーグのリリーフ陣は、昨年の布陣と比べての視点では一応磐石そうに見える?のは阪神、中日?くらいで他のチームは新たな布陣でやらせて見ないと分からないって感じですかね。チームとしての守備力は投手力が最も分かり易い指標なんでしょうけど、イチロー選手がいた頃のオリックスや新庄選手がいた頃の日本ハムのように野手の守備力で結果として数字上の投手力を引き上げてるケースもあり、投手個人の技量・戦績だけでは量れない面を考慮すれば横浜・ヤクルトがAクラス入りする為には、巨人や阪神のように守って勝つのではなく取られたら取り返すという荒い内容の試合をどれだけ多く出来るかになるのかも知れませんね・・・監督さん達からすれば到底望みたくない展開なんでしょうけど。

  199. cat より:

    こんにちは。
    自分はネガディブでもポジティブでもないですが今年は厳しいだろうなと予想はしてます。怖いのは阪神です。正直とら以外はいい点も見えますが悪い点も見えます。何を根拠にあの自信がと不思議です。
    とらは80周年です こういう記念年は目に見えない力が働きやすいです 巨人は3連覇まではするすると行くんですがここからが難しいです どうもタイミングが良くない。セでNo1と自分は思ってる投手陣は脅威です。更にルーキーもいい 今後はともかく1年で考えるなら戦力になります。野手も個々いい選手が多いと思います。強いです。
    ただ巨人は今年は大事な年です負けられません。なかなか達成出来ないV4 そして慎之助がファーストなら怖くないなんてなめられるわけにはいかないです。捕手が誰でも強いとこをしっかり見せないと。基本常勝やエリートは信頼してます。勝つことはそんな難しくない でも勝ち続けることは難しい ああいう人たちの勝ちへの執念負けず嫌いはハンパないので。
    パは案外違うかもです オリとかハムは 
    余談ですが自分はヤフトピも見ないです。スポ紙は結局読者が喜ぶ記事を書いた作文みたいなものなので それが仕事なんで当然ではありますが タブロイドは論外 取材もせず記事によっては記者の名前すらないとか 情報は公式で十分かなと 報知は公式扱いです 喩として上手いなと思っただけで管理人さんが記事の影響受けたと思ったわけではないです ただ批判なんて失礼な気持ちはなかったですが感じられても仕方ないです すいませんでした。 

  200. zzz より:

    初投稿です。いつも楽しく読ませてもらっています。
    巨人について気になる事があるので意見を聞かせてほしいです。
    巨人の打線は何故去年からずっとあまり打たなくなってしまったのでしょうか?ほとんどの打者が淡白過ぎて普通の貧打とは違うような気がします。
    また、村田が一軍に上がりましたが、ロッテとの一戦だけでしたが何か変わっていましたか?私にはよく分からなかったです。
    もしよければお聞かせください!

  201. Yoshi より:

    「リリーフ投手の力量」
    ホント管理人さんのおっしゃる通りですね。パ・リーグでも昨年はソフトバンクとオリックスのリリーフ陣が圧倒的でした。
    あと自分はやはり「捕手の力量」ですね。
    現在セ・リーグは各チームとも捕手が若手に切り替わってきている時期で、かつての谷繁や阿部のような絶対的な存在はないように思います。
    強いチームには必ず優れた捕手がいます。阿部という稀代の名捕手を失った巨人が優勝するためには「小林の成長」も重要なポイントではないかと感じています。

  202. kickhiro7 より:

    管理人さんへ
    なるほど!
    大田選手は大器晩成か。
    納得します。そうですね、幾つかの失敗と成功を重ねて一気に爆発してくれれば。でも超大器晩成にならないように祈るばかりです(笑)。
    順位予想、この時期はなかなか楽しい論議ですね。
    私の場合、生まれも育ちも後楽園の近所なので、ガキの頃からの巨人ファンです。しかも手に負えないのは、V9時代の圧倒的な強さが印象にあるのです。テレビ中継が始まりスコアを見れば必ず巨人が勝っている。それが今も当たり前のように感じてるものだからこのオープン戦は腹立って。
    でも管理人さんの予想は一位。嬉しいですなあ。私も一位です。但し私の場合願望ですが(笑)。
    健筆に感謝です。

  203. BH より:

    なんとなく連投してる気分です。
    順位予想は私も今夜の日記で書こうかと思います。例年巨人・ヤクルト・広島ファンの視点からの各予想になるのですが、今年は難しかったですね。私も悩んだし、広島ファンも悩んでうなりながら予想してました(単に今年はどこに誰がいるかいまいちわかってないだけかもしれませんが^^;)。
    管理人さんは「救援力」で判断ですか。DeNAの抑えに抜擢された山崎は登板ごとにリリーフ適性を発揮してきていますので、最初に叩くのが肝心だなと思ってます。去年三上に最初優しくした?ためにああなってしまいました。「管理人さんがオンドルセクをほめていた」と教えたらヤクルトファンがえらくポジっております(苦笑)。
    私は守備力を見ましたね・・・そこはヤクルトファンもほんとに自信がないようで、またDeNAの試合をオープン戦ずっと見ましたが「・・・これならまだ大丈夫^^;」と思いました。ブランコがロペスになったくらいではそこまで劇的には変わりません。
    ただ、巨人もそこは村田・阿部が不調や故障で不在になり、両外人を入れるような事態になったら相当悲惨といわざるを得ませんが(亀井内野とか><)・・・・。
    両リーグとも、かなり私の予想と似てます。なんとなくホッとしたというか。
    こういうのは恒例の「お祭り」として楽しくやりたいですね。