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2015戦力分析 横浜DeNAベイスターズ編

今回から前回の順位予想の根拠となった戦力分析を書いていきたい。
まず最下位に予想した横浜DeNAベイスターズ編 

【セントラルリーグ順位予想・割合%】※表1
     優勝 2位 3位 4位 5位 6位
読売   45 25 15 10  5  0
阪神   30 25 20 20  5  0
広島   25 30 25 15  5  0
中日    0 10 15 25 30 20
ヤクルト  0  5 15 15 30 35
横浜    0  5 10 15 25 45


【セントラルリーグ順位予想】※表2
1位 読売
2位 阪神
3位 広島
4位 中日
5位 ヤクルト
6位 横浜

表1で示すように筆者の予想では、最下位から2位までの可能性があると見ている

では、ここからは細かく各部門を見ていく。
投手評価は上からABCDEの順。
以下、あくまでも筆者の主観なので御容赦願いたい。

【投手編成】 太字は左
~先発軸~ ()は去年勝利数
久保(12勝)B
井納(11勝)B
山口(8勝)B
モスコーソ(9勝)B

~先発候補~
三浦(5勝)C
高崎(2勝)C
三嶋(1勝)C
高橋尚(0勝)D
加賀美(0勝)D
東野(1軍無し)D

~中継・抑え軸~
三上 B
国吉 C
山崎康 C
エレラ C
岡島 
長田 C

~中継候補~
林 
大原  C
加賀 C
小林 D
平田 E
田中 
大田 D
萬谷 D
柿田 E
須田 D

【投手編成雑感】
先発については久保以外の投手については、実績的には十分とは言えないので若干不安を残すが、井納・山口・モスコーソについてはポテンシャルが高いので、去年以上の勝利数を積み重ねてもおかしくない。
問題は5番手以降の投手で、三嶋・ 高崎辺りの台頭が望まれる。

リリーフについては不動の軸となる投手が居ないのが痛い。
ポテンシャル的には国吉が一番可能性があるが、現状では制球力不足でそこまでの信用はない。
三上・岡島が故障で出遅れてるので、エレラ・国吉・ 山崎が勝ちパターンを締める役目を任せられそうだが、出来れば左で強力なセットアッパー候補が1枚欲しい。
だが現状では、その可能性を持ってる投手は残念ながら見当たらない。

次に野手編成を見ていくが、野手についての細かい評価はしない。
軸となる選手の力量と、彼らの補完的役割を担う選手の層を見た上で、その全体像で評価したい。

【野手編成】 太字は左 ★中心選手
ー捕手ー
黒羽根★
高崎
嶺井
鶴岡

ー内野手ー
ロペス★
石川
山崎
グリエル★
山下
倉本

白崎
バルディリス
柳田
後藤
グリエルJr.
飛雄馬

ー外野手ー
梶谷
筒香
桑原
関根
荒波
松本
下園

井手
多村

 【野手編成雑感】
恐らく外国人の1軍登録は基本的に野手2・投手2になることが予想される。
よってグリエルが来日したら、彼を軸にロペスとバルディリスの併用が予想される。
だが、彼らはシーズン中怪我で離脱する事が結構多いタイプなので、起用法は各選手のコンディショニングの見極めが大事になってくる。
実はロペスも、足の肉離れや脇腹を痛める事が結構多い。 

クリーンアップは筒香を軸に脇を彼ら外国人が固める布陣が予想されるが、その筒香も下半身の怪我が多いタイプなので、上位を目指すには自己管理が非常に重要になる。
1~2番は盗塁王の梶谷とキャプテン石川を中心に、 そこに進境著しい桑原が絡んでくる。

次にポジション別に見ていく。
キャッチャーは去年正捕手をガッチリ守った黒羽根がいる。
しかし2番手以降は経験不足でやや心配。
黒羽根が万が一故障で離脱した場合は、投手陣への悪影響が心配される。

ファーストはロペス・バルディリスが中心となるので問題ないし、後藤という頼もしい存在も控えている。
セカンドは石川を軸に、ルーキー山下がどこまで脅かすか?
ショートは山崎・白崎を中心にルーキー倉本も加わった。
サードはグリエルの体調に問題なければガッチリ固まるし、離脱してもバルディリスが居るので問題ない。

外野は梶谷・筒香を軸に復帰が待たれる荒波や、急成長中の桑原・関根が絡んでくる。
そこにベテランの多村や下園・井手・松本という存在もおり層は厚くなった。 

このように見ていくと、オフの補強で選手層はかなり厚くなった。
ドラフトで内野手の倉本・山下 を獲得した事は、弱かったセカンド・ショートを補強した意味では大きい(但し活躍するかは解らない)

一方で、ブランコ放出による打線の迫力不足という面は否めない。 
ロペスは好打者ではあるが、強打出来るポイントと打てないポイントがハッキリしてる打者なので、中軸で多く打点を稼ぐタイプの選手ではない。 
彼をクリーンアップで起用するには若干違和感を感じる。

グリエルも期待は大きいが、年間で果たして何試合出場できるか?
そう考えると、去年苦しんだ打線の鍵を握るのは、筒香と梶谷が年間通して安定したバッティングをするかにかかってくる。

最後に守備については、一昨年と比べるとかなり改善されたが、 まだまだ穴と呼ばれる部分もある。
特にレフト筒香は足に不安があるので守備範囲に疑問が残る。
又、去年は内野が固定されていないので連係プレーのレベルが低かった。
やはり、守りの要であるショートとセカンドは、出来ることなら固定したい。

【6位予想した理由】
①去年好投した先発陣が、相手の研究に屈して不振に終わる可能性がある
②リリーフ陣に軸となるべき存在がいない
③故障で離脱することが多い主力野手と、得点力の向上に疑問

以上 敬称略 

 
プロ野球ランキング

にほんブログ村 野球ブログ 読売ジャイアンツへ

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  176. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

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    ベイについての考察には同意です
    但し、個人的には筒香・梶谷の外野コンバートは正解だと思っています
    梶谷は内野手としてはスローイングに難がありますし
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    幅が広がると思います。

  177. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    borderlessさん おはようございます
    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    確かに荒波がセンターなら守備は締まるでしょうね
    桑原も上手くなってますが・・・。
    まあかなり守備も良くなっていますが
    他の球団と比べるとやはり落ちますね・・。

  178. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    BHさん こんにちは
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    お気遣い感謝です(^_^;)
    さてベイですがグリエルの件はロペスにとっては朗報ですね
    これで試合に集中できる環境が整いました
    これでGにとっては厄介な状況となってしまいました・・。
    狭い浜スタと東京Dではロペスの長打力は驚異です
    まあ・・外低めに投げておけば問題ないんですが
    怖いのはスライダー系の投げそこないですよね・・。
    う~ん・・大竹・・・w

  179. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    kametta 947さん おはようございます
    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    内村ですか・・良い選手ですよね・・。
    楽天から移籍した年は
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    何で彼を使わないのか? 密かに思っていました
    私も清の現役当時は大ファンでした
    実は選手としては現G監督よりも好きでした
    しかし・・・・以下自粛ですw

  180. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

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    グリエルはどうなってしまうんでしょうね・・。
    逆にチームが一丸になりそうな気も・・苦笑
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    近年は狭い横浜スタジアムや東京Dでは
    Gが打ち勝っていましたが
    徐々に火力で負けていたように思います
    今年はどうなるのでしょうか・・・。

  181. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    ゆーすけさん こんばんは
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    筒香は確かに足の不安がなければ
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  183. BH より:

    こんにちは。
    あまりご自分を追い詰めないでやってくださいね。多分、他チームの試合は巨人ほどはご覧になってないと思いますので。私も今年はCとDを見る機会がほとんどなく、突っ込めませんヾ(^_^;
    さて、DeNAですが、正直巨人並に今年は見ましたので少しは語れますかね。
    中畑監督は内野を外人3人(つまりグリエル二塁)にするつもりだったかも。石川をあまり重視してないみたいだし…倉本はいけるとこまでレギュラーで使うんじゃないでしょうか。
    …と思ってたらグリエル…もう来ないかもしれないですね。とりあえず、これでロペスがキューバアレルギーを発症せずに集中してプレーに専念できそうです(笑)。

  184. kametta 947 より:

    娘が内村のファンなのでイースタンの試合にお付き合いで行く事があります。
    内村は守備と走塁は一級品なのですが、打撃が…(汗)…手術した足首の影響があったようで……今季は!と娘共々祈っています。
    その中でも育成左腕の砂田と外野手の乙坂は、この先ブレイクするのでは?と娘と意見が一致しました。乙坂はイケメンでもあるし…(笑)
    娘のベイ評「いくら攻撃に力を入れても守備をなおざりにしては強く成れない!キヨシはジャイアンツに勝つことと攻撃しか頭に無いんじゃないか?」
    なんも言えねぇ……(汗)…
    キヨシファンの皆様には申し訳ないですが、私も選手としてのキヨシは大好きでしたが、監督としては鶴岡が人的補償で虎に指名された時の態度に大いに失望してしまいました。
    成績は昨年と代わり映え無いのではないかと思っています。

  185. なにわの巨人ふぁん より:

    他球団のオープン戦やキャンプをあまり見ていないので、とても参考になります。
    DeNA、やはり選手層は厚くなってますね。いきなりグリエルが来日延期という情報を見て、いい選手だけどやっぱり取らなくてよかったのでは?と思ってしまいましたが・・・。
    投手は前も後も左が足りない印象ですね。
    でもなぜに去年ジャイアンツは勝ち越せなかったのでしょうか?ボロボロの打ち合いになって、打ち負けるイメージがありませんか?
    中畑監督の意地に勝てなかったんですかね?
    相性の良い内海が出遅れているのが痛いですが、今年は何としても勝ち越してほしいものです。いつも長々すいません。

  186. ゆーすけ より:

    あんなでも筒香は一応左翼リーグトップのUZRなんです・・・
    まぁ左翼なんでライバルはしょぼいですが