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2015戦力分析 阪神タイガース編

今回は3位に予想した阪神タイガース編 

【セントラルリーグ順位予想・割合%】※表1
     優勝 2位 3位 4位 5位 6位
読売   45 25 15 10  5  0
阪神   30 25 20 20  5  0
広島   25 30 25 15  5  0
中日    0 10 15 25 30 20
ヤクルト  0  5 15 15 30 35
横浜    0  5 10 15 25 45


【セントラルリーグ順位予想】※表2
1位 読売
2位 阪神
3位 広島
4位 中日
5位 ヤクルト
6位 横浜

表1で示すように筆者の予想では、優勝から5位までの可能性があると見ている

では、ここからは細かく各部門を見ていく。
投手評価は上からABCDEの順。
以下、あくまでも筆者の主観なので御容赦願いたい。

【投手編成】 太字は左
~先発軸~ ()は去年勝利数
メッセンジャー(13勝)A
藤浪(11勝)B
能見(9勝)B
岩田(9勝)B

~先発候補~ 
岩本(0勝)C
秋山(0勝)D
石崎(新人)C
歳内(1勝)D
サンティアゴ(新外国人)D
横山(新人)C
岩貞(1勝)D
岩崎(5勝)C
小嶋(0勝)D

~中継・抑え軸~
松田 C
呉 A
福原 B
安藤 B
島本 C
榎田 C

~ 中継候補~
金田 C
伊藤 D
鶴 D
二神 D
玉置 D
桑原 D
渡辺 C
藤原 D
高宮 C
筒井 C
加藤 D

【投手編成雑感】 
先発のメッセンジャー・能見・藤浪・岩田の4枚のポテンシャルは高い。
4人共に勝負処で三振を狙える投手なので、僅差のゲームでの信頼性も高い。
だが、不安が無いわけではない。
メッセンジャー・藤浪は体調に問題なければ活躍必至ではあるが、能見は年々直球の切れが落ちているし、岩田は一度リズムを崩すと通年で不振に陥りやすい投手。
しかし、今年のタイガースは彼らだけではない厚みがある。
心境著しい岩本、安定感抜群の岩崎、即戦力ルーキー横山・石崎らが控え、5~6番手の投手でも勝ちを拾える投手陣になってきた。

リリーフ陣も左右のバランスが良くなり層が厚くなった。
去年は抑えの呉と、ベテランセットアッパー福原・安藤の3人が、試合の終盤を締めていたが、今年は左腕の島本と豪腕松田の復活で、福原の出遅れにも動じないセットアッパー陣が出来上がった。
これに今年からリリーフに専念する榎田と、去年終盤にGが苦しめられた高宮も十分戦力になる。
右4枚・左3枚というバランスの良さで、質と量どちらも心配ない。
あえて不安があるとすれば、ストッパー呉への依存度が非常に高いこと。
過去に肘の故障歴がある投手なので、去年のようにフル回転を続けたら故障の心配が出てくる。
その為にも若い松田と島本が、彼の負担を軽減する活躍が望まれる。

【 野手構成】 太字は左 ◎両打ち ★中心選手
ー捕手ー
梅野★
鶴岡
藤井
清水
岡崎
小宮山

ー内野手ー
北條
森越
上本★
黒瀬
ゴメス★
新井
関本
西岡◎★
西田・
荒木

鳥谷★

ー外野手ー
江越
大和★
狩野
マートン★
横田
緒方
伊藤
田上
柴田
福留★

 【野手編成雑感】 
捕手については梅野を中心に、鶴岡・藤井らが脇を固める陣容で不安はない。
梅野はCS・日本シリーズを経験した事が大きい。
この経験は今シーズンの勝負処で活きてくる。

ファーストはゴメスが不動で、彼のバックアッパーとしては新井・関本。
セカンド・上本とショート・鳥谷の二遊間も不動になるが、彼らのバックアッパーはやや不安が残る。
荒木や森越・北條がその役目を担うが、攻守での小粒感は否めない(荒木のスピードは面白い)
鳥谷に不測の事態が襲った場合、センター大和をショートで使うというウルトラCもあるかもしれない。
又、西岡の肘が悪くなければ、セカンド西岡・ショート上本という事も全くないわけではない。
しかし、この場合は守備力が大きく低下する。
サードは西岡の体調が万全なら彼が中心になり、彼に続くのが出遅れてる今成と強打の新井。
そしてユーティリティー性の高い坂・関本の存在も内野を構成する上で外せない選手となっている。

外野もセンター大和・ライト福留・レフトマートンが不動になる。
ライトの福留はフル出場が厳しいので、その場合はルーキー江越と伊藤隼らが代役を担う。
一部ではセンター大和の攻撃力を不安視し、センター江越を期待する向きがあるが、センター大和の守備力を過小評価するのは、センターラインの弱体化に繋がり守備の破綻に繋がってくる。

【2位予想した理由】
先発・リリーフ共に強化された投手陣

【不安点】
ゴメス頼みの得点力。
彼が他球団のマークによって不振に陥った場合は、同じポイントゲッターのマートンと福留にも悪影響を及ぼす可能性が高い。

【優勝する為の条件】
①藤浪の躍進
②ゴメスが他球団のマークをはねのける。

以上 敬称略 

~あとがき~
最後にジャイアンツの戦力分析を行うつもりでしたが、書く内容が過去の記事と被る部分が多いので、割愛させて頂きます。
一応、大枠の記事は出来上がってるので、御要望が多ければ公開しますが・・・。

 
プロ野球ランキング

にほんブログ村 野球ブログ 読売ジャイアンツへ
   にほんブログ村

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  194. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    zzzさん こんにちは
    コメント有り難うございます
    お役に立てたなら嬉しい限りです
    さて、暫くG打線は重い状況が続きそうですが
    我々ファンは、彼らを信じて応援するしかないですね・・。
    村田・・・頼むよ・・・(>_<)

  195. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    風来坊さん こんにちは
    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    <結局「一年間騙し続けられる」方が優位になると思います
    同意です
    ペナントレースは長いですから、リリーフ投手の起用法は大きなポイントです
    投手については戦力的に阪神は揃っています

  196. hideo469998【超激辛NPBコラム管理人】 より:

    borderlessさん こんにちは
    いつもコメント有り難うございます
    同意ですね・・。
    私も戦力的にはGと並んで優勝候補の筆頭だと思います
    しかし、それ以外の事でどうしても足を引っ張るというか
    詰めが甘いというか。。。
    そんな印象が拭えません。

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    今日も4安打だけで同じような打撃でしたが取り合えず勝てましたね(^^)

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