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交流戦開幕! G戦先発ローテーションと勝敗を読む【交流戦展望】

今日から交流戦がスタートする。
色々ルールが変わったが、CS放送「プロ野球ニュース」で使われたフリップで説明すると、以下の通りとなる。

DSC_0186

最大の変更点は何と言っても試合数が少なくなった事。
そしてこのフリップでは説明されていないが、6連戦で試合が消化していくので日程的な間延びがなくなる事。
つまり、先発投手が6枚必要になってくるので、エース級以外のローテ投手の実力が問われてくる。
又、これまでのように投手の枚数を減らして、野手の登録人数を増やす策は取れない。

Gの先発ローテと対戦するパリーグ各チームの予想先発を挙げていく。
H=ホームゲーム 
◎○▲△はG勝敗予想(筆者の偏見で総合的に判断)
◎G勝利有力 ○Gやや有利 ▲五分五分 △Gやや不利

26日 H G菅野    L十亀  ▲
27日 H G大竹    L野上  ▲
28日 H Gマイコラス L西口  ▲ ※マイコラスはこの試合で抹消されるだろう
29日   Gポレダ   E辛島  ○
30日   G杉内    Eレイ  ▲
31日   G高木勇   E則本  ▲
 1日 移動日
 2日 H G菅野    Bs吉田  ○ ※オープン戦の対G戦で好投した吉田が有力
 3日 H G大竹    Bsバリントン ○
 4日 H G内海    Bs東明  ◎
 5日 H Gポレダ   H摂津  ▲
 6日 H G杉内    Hスタンリッジ ▲
 7日 H G高木勇   H寺原  ○
 8日 移動日
 9日   G菅野    F吉川  ▲ ※Fの先発は全く読めない
10日   G大竹    F有原  ○
11日   G内海    Fメンドーサ ▲
12日   Gポレダ   M古谷  △ ※古谷でなければチェンの可能性もある
13日   G杉内    M石川  △
14日   G高木勇   M大嶺  ▲ ※ここも読めない

雨天中止が無ければ基本は6連戦なので、比較的先発ローテは読みやすい。
但し、Fは大谷の登板日が流動的なので全く読めない。
Mも13日の石川以外は、他の投手に差し替えてくる事も考えられる。

一応、この先発投手が対戦する事を前提に勝敗を占うと以下の通り。
◎1試合、○5試合、▲10試合、△2試合
◎と○を勝ちとして計算すると6勝、▲の半分を勝ちとして計算すると5勝5敗、△は負けとして計算すると2敗。
合計すると11勝7敗という事になる。

次にパリーグ各チームを大まかに分析する
評価はABCD
攻撃力には機動力も含まれる

福岡ソフトバンクホークス
投手力B 攻撃力A 守備力A

投手陣についてはやや隙を感じるが、高い守備力で無駄な失点を防ぎ、高い攻撃力で圧倒しているイメージが強い。
投打が上手く噛み合えば、間違いなく優勝候補筆頭。

オリックスバファローズ
投手力C 攻撃力C 守備力B

全体的に力が落ちてる投手陣を打線がカバーしきれていない。
だが、金子が復活すれば侮れない。

北海道日本ハムファイターズ
投手力B 攻撃力B 守備力B

投打のバランスが良いチームで、機動力も使える。
若いチームなので乗って来ると怖いが、歯車が狂うと沈む危険性を秘める。

千葉ロッテマリーンズ
投手力D 攻撃力B 守備力B

4番手以降の先発に目処が立っていないのが苦しい。
去年までなら「繋がる打線」で勝ってきたが、システムが変わった今年は果たして?

埼玉西武ライオンズ
投手力C 攻撃力A 守備力C

やや投手陣に不安が残る。
抑えの高橋までどうやって繋いでいくか?
森・秋山の成長で攻撃力はリーグ屈指。

東北楽天ゴールデンイーグルス
投手力C 攻撃力C 守備力C

ここまで負けが先行している則本が結果を残していかないと厳しい。
打撃陣にも軸が居ないので、先取点が必須になってくる。
抑えの松井裕まで何とかリードする展開に持ち込みたい。

以上 敬称略


プロ野球ランキング

にほんブログ村 野球ブログ 読売ジャイアンツへ
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    彼の構えは、自らの弱点を消すために、ああいう構えになったと思う。
    内角球を腕をたたんで、回転で打つという技術はない。
    そう思うと、対戦別の打率が合点がゆく。内角を意識させて、カウントを追い込み、1ー2もしくは2ー2から、思い切って懐もしくは落ちる球で攻めれば、それほど打たれるだ打者ではない。考え方としては、外国人打者に近い攻め方。腕が伸びきった所の変化球が一番危ない。かなり他球団のスコアラーも阿部の攻め方は参考になったと思います。

  229. borderless より:

    おはようございます。今季の交流戦、日程の変更もさることながら賞金のあり方が特殊と言うかセ対パというリーグ全体での勝敗を争う形で、チームとして優勝してもリーグで負けてしまえばあまりメリットがないような感じですね。パ・リーグの分析でソフトバンクの投手力の評価が低い気がします。先発は中田投手以外はさほど問題ないですし、何よりリリーフ陣が強力過ぎると思います。日本ハムは機動力をフルに使っているので打撃力のみ以上の攻撃力があると思われます。オリックスは昨年活躍したリリーフ陣が不甲斐無いだけで先発陣はそれ程悪くないと思いますが、補強組が皆1軍にいないので攻撃力でカバーするのは難しいかも知れません。金子投手は恐らく交流戦中に本調子に戻るとは思えないですが。楽天はとにかく打てない上に銀次選手を欠いてしまった為、かなり苦しいでしょうね。ロッテ・西武は仰られてる通りだと思いますが、ただ巨人はこれ迄ロッテとあまり相性が良くないはずで、成瀬投手が抜けた今回はどうなるやら?という処でしょうか。とにかくパ・リーグの打者は振り回してくる選手が多いのでドームでやる時の長打警戒がセ・リーグ相手以上にならざるを得ないでしょうね。

  230. 口臭男 より:

    今は先発陣が安定しているのでいい戦いをするはず。ここまで先発が揃うチームは他にいない気がする。是非交流戦で優勝していつもの場所に戻ってほしい。唯一不安があるのが山口。戸根が元気なうちに本来の姿に戻ってもらいたい。野球はやっぱり投手、守り。ジャイアンツは相手の表ローテと戦うことが多いので打者は可哀想だが彼らを打てなくして日本一はあり得ないので頑張ってもらいたい。あと気になるのが交流戦の日程とシステムがあまり納得がいかない。あそこのチームと対戦するときはホームがいいなど平等制がないのとファンは普段見れない選手を見れない可能性がある。やはりその年にホーム&アウェイがいいと思うがどうなんだろう。

  231. cat より:

    こんにちは。
    ドラフトの優先権は何気に大きいです。
    どう考えてもパが負けるとは思わないし。
    大谷くんは交流戦は野手1本のようです。何かのスポニューで見たような。オリもロッテもハムも西武もとにかくパは打ってる試合しか見てない感じです。タカは今更言うに及ばず。
    セは怪我人いなくてチーム状態いいの横浜くらいです。巨人も村田が怪我とか寺が怪我とか流れは決していいとは言えないので1戦ずつ大事に戦っていきたいです。投手と守りは負けてないけど打ち勝つのはまだまだ無理だし。
    正直不安しかないですが交流戦ならではの楽しみもあります。 

  232. kametta 947 より:

    岸もネコさまも故障明け
    今年は俗に言うスーパーエースは見当たりません。強いて言えば大谷だけ
    対してウチは久しぶりの投手王国
    そこそこの戦いは出来るかと思います。
    ひとつ心配なこと
    ポジティブな私ですが、杉内がコボスタで勝利する姿が想像出来ません。
    マツダ以上の……これ以上は言霊になるといけないから言いません!
    ブッチャケ内海に投げて欲しいんだけど……