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ヤクルト粉砕のポイントは「第1戦の先取点」

いよいよ今夜からクライマックスシリーズ2ndステージが始まる。
対戦カードはセ・リーグがヤクルトvs巨人、パ・リーグはソフトバンクvsロッテで、ペナントレースを制したヤクルトとソフトバンクの両チームには、1勝のアドバンテージが与えられる。

今回は、筆者が贔屓にしている巨人がヤクルトを破って日本シリーズに進出する為には何が必要なのか?
又は、どんな試合展開が望ましいのか?
この視点で考えていきたい。

まず前提としてハッキリ言わなければならない事は「どう考えてもヤクルト優位に変わりはないこと
下手したらヤクルト3連勝で、アッサリ終わってしまう危険性すら感じている。
つまり、今のヤクルトと巨人の間にはペナントレースの最終ゲーム差(1.5ゲーム)以上の力差が有る事を認識せねばならない

では、その挑戦者である巨人は、ヤクルトに対してどのような戦い方が必要なのか?
まず、その大前提になるのは「第1・第2戦を絶対に落とさない事」
これを成就するには以下の二つがポイントになる。

①相手に先取点を絶対に許さない
②6回裏が終わった時点でリードしている展開に持ち込む

ペナントレースに関しては、前年最下位に終わっていたヤクルトは常に挑戦者の立場で試合に挑むことが出来ていたが、これからは全く別の立場になる。
つまり、序盤で相手にリードを許したり、リードされた状態で終盤戦を迎えれば、大きなプレッシャーを感じながらプレーせざるを得なくなる。
巨人の狙い目はここにある。

仮に第1戦と第2戦で巨人の思惑通りに事が進めば、第3戦はヤクルトが苦手にしているマイコラスが登場する。
勿論、S側もマイコラス対策を練ってくるとは思うが、第1・第2戦で既に後手を踏んでしまったS打線の心理状態では、彼を攻略するのは困難を極めるだろう。
ここで王手に追い込んでしまえば、ヤクルトは投打ともに尋常でないプレッシャーに押し潰されて自滅する可能性が高くなり、巨人が第4戦で一気に決着をつける可能性が高い。

いずれにしても、上記の展開に持ち込む為には「初戦の先取点を巨人が奪う事」が大前提になる。
それもなるべく早い回から得点を奪いたい。
逆に初戦からヤクルトに主導権を奪われてしまうと「3連敗で敗退」という悲しい結果になる可能性が高い。

—————————————————————————————–

【両軍の予想先発】

☆読売ジャイアンツ
第1戦 内海
第2戦 田口(大竹)
第3戦 マイコラス
第4戦 菅野
第5戦 ポレダ
第6戦 内海

★東京ヤクルトスワローズ
第1戦 石川
第2戦 小川
第3戦 舘山
第4戦 杉浦
第5戦 石山
第6戦 石川

巨人の方は非常に読みづらい
初戦の内海は濃厚だが、第2戦は全く読めない。
今朝の報道では高木勇が、初戦はブルペン待機する事が濃厚なので、第2戦も同じような使い方になる可能性が高い。
そうなると、新たに第2戦直前に大竹か田口を1軍登録して、即先発させる可能性が高くなる。
第3~第5戦までは上記のメンバーでほぼ固い。
そして最終戦は使える投手を惜しみ無く投入するだろう。

ヤクルトは上記の順番が濃厚と見ている。
力量的には第1戦は小川と舘山の方が妥当かもしれないが、前者は兎も角、後者は肘に爆弾を抱えているので、第6戦を中4日で起用する事は無いと見る。
よって第1戦で使う選択肢は考えていないだろう。
そう考えると、ベテランで中4日でも調整が十分可能な石川が軸になる可能性が高い。

——————————————————————————————

【筆者おすすめの第1戦スタメン】

①センター   立岡
②サード    井端
③ショート   坂本
④ファースト  阿部
⑤ライト    長野
⑥レフト    亀井
⑦セカンド   片岡
⑧キャッチャー 小林

1番立岡の状態が上がってるので、彼の出塁を得点に結びつける方策を考えねばならない。
残念ながら、クリーンアップの3人(坂本・阿部・長野)の状態が良くないので、立岡が出塁して井端が単純に送りバントをしても、得点に繋がる可能性はかなり低い。
よって立岡の出塁を活かす為には、井端の打席でエンドランを仕掛けて、出来ることなら1~3塁という形を狙いたい。

相手の石川には井端が空振りするボールは無いので、エンドランは仕掛けやすい投手である。
又、井端の技術なら十分に仕掛けられるカウントまで持っていけるので、好結果を十分期待できる。

そして下位には俊足で長打も期待できる片岡を置いて、下位からの攻撃でもワンチャンスで得点できる可能性を残しておきたい。
片岡はランナーを返すバッティングも出来るし、先頭打者としても機能する打力と脚力を持っている。
又、一発を狙っても良い場面では、十分にスタンドまで運ぶ長打力を持っている。
試合前に、本人に対して7番起用の意図を説明しておけば、彼は必ず期待に応えてくれると思う。

逆に今朝の新聞報道で出ていた「7番井端」は機能するとは思えない。
彼を7番に置くと、7番から1番まで単打しか期待できない打者が続くことになり、下位打線からの得点の可能性が小さくなる。
彼を起用するなら、通常なら勝負強さが活きる6番がベストで、今日のような石川のような軟投派タイプの投手が相手なら、エンドランを積極的に仕掛けられるので2番起用が面白い。

以上 敬称略

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  382. ヒロ より:

    先日は、大田への解説いただき、ありがとうございました。
    その後、大田はすぐに2軍に降格となり、私のクライマックスシリーズへの興味は、1球毎、1打席毎より、勝ち負けが中心となってしまいました。
    さて、阪神を退け、ヤクルトへの挑戦権を得て、幸先良く1勝を挙げました。
    ただ、圧倒的に強いチャレンジャーとして勝ち上がったのではなく、ヤクルトの試合勘が鈍ったままのところに救われた感じでしょうか?
    今さらながら、クライマックスシリーズは、シーズンを首位で終えたチームが、試合間隔が空き過ぎる事に、納得がいきません。(まあ、5割を切って負け越していたチームが、クライマックスシリーズに出場するのも、???ですが…)
    不利益が大き過ぎると思うのですが…

  383. オールPキング より:

    先ほどは失礼しました!
    杞憂に終わって良かったです。
    明日の先発が、報道では、マイコラスが
    多く言われてますが、私も管理人さまと同じく、大竹や、田口で行くべきだと思ってます。
    今日勝ったことで、尚更そのほうがと思ってます。
    ただ、今日は畠山にこそ打たれましたが、山田は封じたので、そのまま3戦に持ち込めれば、勝ち抜けも見えてくるのでは?と思っています。
    ツキもあったように思うので、そのツキを手放さないように、戦ってもらいたいと思います。
    明日は現地観戦です!

  384. 伊予之鈍才 より:

    豪華客船瀬戸内パイレーツ1世号を造りたい。伊予之鈍才です。内海先発で一点取られたので負けかな!と思いそのあと結果みると勝っていた!改めて気持ちを切り替えて明日からが本当の勝負だと思います。みんな頑張れ!みんな頑張れ!みんな頑張れ!みんな頑張れ!みんな頑張れ!

  385. オールPキング より:

    今から8回。
    山口の跨ぎは危険だと思う。
    頭から澤村で行くべきなのに

  386. 小太郎 より:

    更新おつかれさまです。
    今の打線だったら、井端、片岡は使いたいですね。片岡は確かに7番で思いきり打ってもらいたいです。
    …と昼に書いたら村田でしたね。
    そろそろ村田にも頑張ってほしいです。
    勝利期待しています!

  387. pug より:

    更新お疲れ様です。
    個人的にはシーズン中のような真っ向勝負で行くと筆者さんと同じく3連敗でアッサリ終わる可能性が高いと思ってるので、特に初戦は選手起用や作戦面でも言い方は悪いかもしれませんがメチャクチャやって欲しいと思ってたりします。
    いわゆる3本柱が登板できない初戦(場合によっては2戦目も)は、相性の悪い神宮という面もあるので、いくらヤクルトの実戦経験が戻ってないとはいえ、普通に戦ったのでは分が悪すぎるので、出来れば先発もマスコミが内海一色予想の中、相川を登録して1番状態の良かった4月の組み合わせで高木の先発とかをやって欲しかったんですが…
    これが去年までの優勝して迎え撃つ立場ならば奇襲のような作戦は反対なのですが、今年はあくまで挑戦者の立場で、そこまでチーム状態も良いとはいえないですからね。
    アドバンテージの事は考えずに、初戦はたとえボロ負けになろうとも、攻守において、シーズン中とは真反対ぐらいの攻めで相手を混乱までいかなくても、2戦目以降に違和感というか不気味さを残すような攻め方を期待したいところです。

  388. nakaji より:

    更新お疲れさまです。
    がっぷり四つで組み合わず…いなせるか。
    現状のチーム力で「神宮のヤクルト」に対抗するには、正攻法で真面にぶつかる事は得策とは言えない。攻撃にしても防御にしても…。
    対石川…流石に今回は前回対戦時のように左の亀井をスタメンから外す選択肢はあり得ないだろうが、対石川に向けてどれだけ束になった攻撃が実践出来るかに注目である。選手個々に対応を任せる手段では、相手の心理を巧みに利用する石川の術中に嵌るのが目に見えている。
    彼のような投球術に長けて、球種が豊富な相手は「配球」に引っ張られない事が重要だ。石川&中村のバッテリーにこちらの狙い球はバレているという前提で臨むべきかなと。
    彼は打ってこない事を察知すると平気でド真ん中でカウントを整えてきたり、例えば…カットボールを狙いに来てる匂いを嗅ぎつければ、異なった球種では無く、あえて同じ球種をボール気味に投げてくるタイプ…。
    対石川は、キレイな当たりはいらない。泥臭いヒットをコツコツ積み上げられるかだ。
    球種よりコース狙い。
    コース…アウトサイド狙い。みんなで徹底して外狙い。
    って来れば当然、石川はインサイドに突っ込んで来るけれど…そこはグッと堪えて強引になったらダメ。中に入れようとせずファールでok。
    石川の生命線はアウトサイドの出し入れ。
    インサイドいっぱいを見送り三振okぐらいの心持ちで、インサイドは視界から消してでも…外寄りの対応に神経を研ぎ澄まして欲しい。
    スタメン〜
    ポストシーズン仕様として、私も管理人さんと同じで、スタメン表の2番に井端の名前を書きたい派ですが、現実的には通常運転に落ちつくのが濃厚そうです。
    立岡出塁→片岡バント→坂本と阿部のポップ&ゴロ…の正攻法で得点のイメージが湧かないだけに、エンドランが鍵を握りそうですね。

  389. 口臭男 より:

    阪神戦は勝ちましたがマイコ、菅野、ポレダを使ったのはいささか腑に落ちない。神宮でのヤクルト戦は東京ドームの阪神戦よりは長打が出やすいと個人的には思っています。ペナントでも球に速さ、強さがない投手は苦労していた印象でした。内海、田口は東京ドームの阪神戦がよかった気がしました。ただヤクルトも先発陣は不安定なのである程度打ち合いになる可能性もあると思っています。初戦の内海、石川は両投手ともに球に速さ、強さがないので長打が明暗を分けそうな気がします。そう考えている私はサード井端よりも村田、レフト亀井よりもアンダーソン。