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阿部を生かすも殺すもサカチョー次第

1月5日付の記事で、4連覇を逃した昨シーズンの敗因を一昨年の成績と比べて分析したが、やはり、阿部とサカチョー(坂本・長野)コンビの不振が、Gにとって致命傷だった事は誰もが認めるところだろう。
そんな彼らの「今シーズン」を考える前に、ここまでの年度別成績を振り返っておく。
(太字はリーグ優勝、2009・2012は日本一)

阿部慎之助 年度別成績

年度 球団




























O
P
S
2001 読売 127 428 386 40 87 18 0 13 144 44 3 0 2 2 31 7 79 9 .225 .373 .293 .668
2002 読売 127 511 446 62 133 26 0 18 213 73 4 1 4 3 46 12 81 10 .298 .478 .377 .857
2003 読売 94 371 314 46 95 15 1 15 157 51 1 1 3 4 40 9 52 7 .303 .500 .392 .897
2004 読売 108 436 379 61 114 22 1 33 237 78 0 0 1 0 43 13 87 6 .301 .625 .391 1.016
2005 読売 130 534 476 56 143 16 0 26 237 86 0 2 0 6 51 1 78 15 .300 .498 .365 .867
2006 読売 129 497 452 39 133 26 2 10 193 56 0 2 4 2 35 4 76 8 .294 .427 .349 .777
2007 読売 140 580 499 72 137 20 0 33 256 101 1 2 3 10 57 11 76 17 .275 .513 .355 .875
2008 読売 125 484 428 60 116 27 0 24 215 67 1 1 4 0 44 8 66 17 .271 .502 .350 .852
2009 読売 123 462 409 63 120 20 2 32 240 76 1 1 2 7 34 10 87 9 .293 .587 .357 .949
2010 読売 140 569 498 85 140 27 2 44 303 92 0 0 1 1 58 11 91 8 .281 .608 .368 .977
2011 読売 114 437 390 45 114 21 0 20 195 61 1 1 2 1 35 9 66 12 .292 .500 .363 .864
2012 読売 138 556 467 72 159 22 1 27 264 104 0 0 2 8 69 9 47 11 .340 .565 .429 1.000
2013 読売 135 529 422 81 125 17 0 32 238 91 0 0 0 6 86 15 59 8 .296 .564 .427 .996
2014 読売 131 526 459 49 114 24 0 19 195 57 1 3 0 2 58 7 77 16 .248 .425 .340 .766
2015 読売 111 419 343 44 83 14 0 15 142 47 0 0 0 4 64 8 84 9 .242 .414 .370 .787
通算 1872 7339 6368 875 1813 315 9 361 3229 1084 13 14 28 56 751 134 1106 162 .285 .507 .369 .879

坂本勇人 年度別成績

年度 球団




























O
P
S
2007 読売 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667
2008 読売 144 567 521 59 134 24 1 8 184 43 10 5 15 1 28 2 98 2 .257 .353 .297 .65
1
2009 読売 141 640 581 87 178 33 3 18 271 62 5 3 7 4 44 4 101 8 .306 .466 .357 .826
2010 読売 144 676 609 107 171 35 4 31 307 85 14 4 10 7 47 3 83 6 .281 .504 .332 .839
2011 読売 144 624 568 69 149 27 2 16 228 59 8 1 10 3 37 6 91 3 .262 .401 .313 .716
2012 読売 144 619 557 87 173 35 2 14 254 69 16 1 12 5 39 6 90 5 .311 .456 .359 .818
2013 読売 144 620 554 73 147 33 1 12 218 54 24 4 4 3 55 4 87 11 .265 .394 .334 .730
2014 読売 144 616 545 82 152 29 0 16 229 61 23 5 9 5 55 2 88 3 .279 .420 .344 .767
2015 読売 130 558 479 50 129 21 3 12 192 68 10 4 9 5 65 0 79 5 .269 .401 .353 .757
通算 1139 4923 4417 615 1234 237 16 127 1884 503 111 27 76 33 370 27 717 43 .279 .427 .336 .765

長野久義 年度別成績

年度 球団




























O
P
S
2010 読売 128 459 430 66 124 24 3 19 211 52 12 4 2 0 25 2 72 10 .288 .491 .330 .821
2011 読売 140 578 519 58 164 20 4 17 243 69 19 8 3 2 48 6 85 11 .316 .468 .379 .849
2012 読売 144 653 574 84 173 29 2 14 248 60 20 7 2 1 75 1 100 5 .301 .432 .382 .815
2013 読売 144 642 590 82 166 21 3 19 250 65 14 5 3 0 48 1 101 6 .281 .424 .336 .760
2014 読売 130 523 472 67 140 29 1 13 210 62 8 4 4 2 42 3 75 8 .297 .445 .356 .803
2015 読売 130 479 434 49 109 20 3 15 180 52 3 2 5 2 34 4 81 12 .251 .415 .310 .726
通算 816 3334 3019 406 876 143 16 97 1342 360 76 30 19 7 272 17 514 52 .290 .445 .351 .797

小笠原・ラミレスが主軸だった2008~2011年を除くと、阿部のキャリアハイは2012年、坂本と長野も2012年になる。
更に言えば、3人の2012年以降の成績を見ていくと、数字の上下がお互いにリンクしている事が伺える。

弊ブログを長くご覧頂いている読者の方ならお分かりになると思うが、筆者は阿部のバッティング技術を「NPB屈指」という表現で評価し、対して坂本・長野については「明確な壁(弱点)」があると指摘してきた。
よって、阿部がここ数年の数字が落ちてるのは、ケガと加齢によるものが大きいと考えているが、坂本・長野については技術な問題だと考えている。

特に坂本に関しては、今のバッティングスタイルを変えないのであれば、数字が大きく伸びるとは考えにくい
一方で長野の昨シーズンの不振ついては、肘と膝の故障明けで満足な状態でプレー出来なかった事を考慮に入れれば、去年の数字はある意味仕方がないとは思う。
しかし、冷静に技術的な観点で見ると、彼も今のままではタイトル争いするような選手とは思えない

筆者の考える二人の技術的な課題は以前の記事で度々語ってきたので割愛するが、平たく言えば「彼らの攻略法が確立されている」という事である。
この現状を打破するには、技術的にワンランク上げなければ難しい。
少し前までは阿部の存在感、脇を固める強者ベテラン(亀井・村田・ロペス・高橋由・井端など)が二人の負担を軽減して自身の成績が多少悪くてもチームは何とか勝てていたが、彼らの年齢による衰えや怪我、移籍などで、二人に掛かる負担が一層大きくなっている2015年シーズン前だった。
そしてシーズンに入り、補強した選手が例年以上に機能しなかったので、彼らの不振がチーム成績に直結してしまった。

阿部が全盛期ならばバッテリーのマークが彼に集中し、二人の数字を引き上げる事も期待出来たが、残念ながら、ここ3年の状態を見る限りでは、それを期待しない方がより現実的と言える。
つまり、阿部復活の期待が薄い中で、二人が2012年並の結果を残すには、二人自身が技術的にレベルを上げて、体力も1年間持たなければありえないという事になる。
逆に年齢的、体力的な事を考えれば、二人が阿部を引っ張るような形が必要になる。
但し、そうは言ってもバッティング技術に関してサカチョーは、阿部の域とは大きな差がある。
しかし、年間100試合出場出来るか微妙な阿部をチームの軸として計算するのは、どう考えても優勝を狙うチームではない。

去年、スワローズが優勝したのは、怪我で離脱することが多いバレンティンやミレッジを軸に置いていた打線を、2年かけて山田・畠山・川端・雄平の4人に移行させた事が大きな要因だった。
勿論、全てが上手くいった訳ではないが、少なくとも筆者にはスワローズがバレンティンとミレッジ(外国人)に頼らないチームを作っている事を数年前から感じていた。
そして、去年の真中新体制で完成させた訳である。

原前監督も同じ事を常に考えていたと思う。
ラミレス・小笠原がいた頃から監督は常々、阿部・坂本・長野がチームの軸にならねばならないと語ってきたし、その阿部が明確な軸になった2012~2014年の3連覇の頃からは、中堅の坂本・長野の更なる成長を促し、そのサポート役として村田も獲得した。
そして同時に若手(大田・中井・橋本など)の台頭も期待していたが、どちらも監督の思惑通りには運ばなかった。

もう今のGにはサカチョーの前に立つ選手は誰もいない。
ならば、サカチョーがチーム内外を納得させる成績を出さなければならない。

そうすれば阿部が一昨年のシーズンオフから度々インタビューで使っている言葉である「最後の一花」を咲かせる事が可能になるかもしれないし、伸び悩んでいる大田・中井・橋本の覚醒、立岡の更なる成長、期待される岡本の台頭があるかもしれない。

だが、去年までのサカチョーのバッティング技術では、それを叶えるのは非常に難しい。
特に前段で書いた通り、坂本はバッティングそのものを大きく見直さなければキャリアハイの結果は机上の空論になる。
長野・坂本共にバッティングに対するアプローチを思い切って変える必要があるが、現時点ではそのような報道は聞こえてこない。

彼らは今年の自主トレから阿部とは別行動で、二人が後輩を引き連れてグアムでトレーニングを始めているが、それはとても良い事だと思う。
恐らく、阿部が考えて決断した事だと思うが、これはチームの軸を二人に託した事を意味している。
ならば、彼の「想い」を結果に繋げる為にも、二人は絶対に今季は巻き返さねばならない。

筆者は二人が阿部の想いを痛いほど理解していると思ってるし、それを結果に表して欲しいと願っている。
その為には二人ともバッティングをドラスティックに変える位の「覚悟」を見せて欲しい。
ここ数年見せた同じ失敗(同じ攻められ方で凡打する姿)を見せないで欲しい。
特に坂本は失敗を恐れずに「挑戦」して、是非ともそれをモノにするまで拘って続けて欲しい
彼は去年のキャンプからシーズン後のプレミア12まで、何度もバッティングを変え続けてきた。
悩んでる事も痛いほど解るが、如何せん「コロコロ変え過ぎ」だった印象は否定できない
長野も去年はその傾向が若干表れていた。
この自主トレの後半で「今年のバッティング」をある程度の形にして、キャンプではそれを固めてモノにして貰いたい。

筆者なりに考えた方法を具体的に言えば、坂本は外角低めにボールを集められると苦しいバッティングスタイルなので、もっとベース寄
りで打席に立つ事

かなり勇気が必要な「変化」ではあるが、上半身のパワーが不足している彼にとって、外角直球に対応するには、これくらいの工夫は必要になるだろうし、残念ながら現状ではこれくらいしか浮かばなかった。

長野の場合は、状態が悪くなると構えからトップまでの流れの中で、左肩がキャッチャー方向にロックして、背番号がバックネット方向からの映像でハッキリ見えてしまうスイングになるので、もう少しオープンスタンスで構えてボールを見やすくして、トップまでの過程でガチガチに力む形を抑える事が必要になる
その為には、今のベースから離れた立ち位置では厳しいので、彼ももう少しベース寄りに立つ必要がある

以上が筆者のキャリアの中で考えついた方法だが、これには賛否両論あって当然だと思うし、プロの選手・コーチなら別のアプローチでレベルアップする方法があると思う。
いずれにしても、現状のままでは厳しいので、キャンプでは何かが変わった二人の姿を見たいと切に願っている。

以上 敬称略


尚、上記データについては「プロ野球データFreak」さんから引用させて頂いております。

http://baseball-data.com/

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  221. 口臭男 より:

    坂本は本来典型的な攻撃型1番打者と思っています。目指すところが違うような気がします。本塁打を増やすより首位打者を意識するべきでタイプ的には内川を目指すべきだと思っています。ファンも首脳陣も長打に期待し過ぎではないかと思います。まずは首位打者を取ることに専任してほしいです。
    長野に関してはパンチ力は阿部に次いであるのは間違いないと思っています。彼は坂本とは真逆で本塁打王を目指すべきだと思います。

  222. うなさん より:

    私はキャンプとOP戦次第かなと思います。
    阿部の場合は衰えても打撃技術はずば抜けている。
    なので助言をもらえば、自分で工夫して打席にたつことができる選手だと思います。実際、CSもそうでした。
    彼の場合故障で100%はハッキリいうと無理です。
    ただ今の40%~良くて60%の状態をトレーニングや起用次第で80%まで引き上げることは可能だと思います。
    個人的に近年は阿部の技術頼みの打線て印象を強く受けます。
    もちろん、坂本、長野、他のナインの力のフォローがあってこその2015年シーズンだと思います。
    ただ技術だけで、阿部が打線を引っ張るのは限界に来てると思います。それがCSにもろにでてたと思います。
    本人もそれを自覚しているから、サカチョーの自立を諭していたし、自分の変わりに4番を打てる打者の存在を望んでる風にも見えます。
    けど由伸監督はまだまだできるんだから、もうひとふんばり頑張れてコメントしてるんですよね。
    彼はもう一花さかせた選手ですから、余計にそう思うのかなと。
    個人的に捕手問題が気になりますね。捕手だけは競争というより、相性が重視されるポジションだと思うんです。
    長文すみません。

  223. みかん船 より:

    私が来シーズンに希望するのは、開幕から内野手に1枠、外野手に1枠、若手と呼ばれる選手を使い続ける事です。監督の言う覚悟と、チームスローガンの一新を見せてもらいたいものです。

  224. pug より:

    更新お疲れ様です。
    本当に筆者さんが書かれているとおりだと思います。
    坂本、長野が予定通りに打線の中心でチームを引っ張る成績を残していれば下位打線で大田等若手育成枠を作れて成長を待つスタイルが確立されていてチーム力が強化されていた未来を夢見ていましたからね。
    そして今のスタイルでは現状を大きく超える成績が残せないというのも同感です。
    坂本はスタメン定着で主軸を打つようになってから右に長打が打てるようになれば、軽く常に30本は打つようになるんだろうなと思ってたんですが、その後の停滞や新聞報道で見たスイングスピードの遅さ(山田と比較したら、かなり劣ってたというような記事を見た気がするので)を見て、筆者さんが書かれているようにベース寄りに立って、更に開き直ってプルヒッターになるしかないんじゃないかと思ってます。
    長野に関しては元々、離れて立ってるのもあると思いますが、外国人の様な来た球に反応するバッティング(配球を読んでるようにも見えないことが多々あるので)だと思っていたので、体の状態が良くなっていれば、もう少し考えながらバッティングをしてくれたら変わるかなとは思ってます。
    とにかくキャンプ、実戦で何か変化を見たい気持ちは強いですね。

  225. nakaji より:

    更新お疲れ様です。
    「核」となる題材…早々の登場ですね。
    特に坂本に関してはこちらにお邪魔した際、幾度となくご意見を交換させて頂きましたね。
    ココ数シーズンの坂本の停滞は、ある意味「自業自得」的な印象を抱いています。
    これまでのキァリアの中で多くの引き出しを培ってきた反面、その引き出しの多さが「邪魔」してる感じというか…。相手と戦っているというより、己のフォームと戦っているような。
    数字的キァリアハイは2012年ですが、バッティングの中身という視点でのキァリアハイは…
    個人的には、2009年なんですよね。2012の坂本は、正直面白くなかったかなと。ワクワクしなかった。
    願望的には…バッティングフォームのベースを2009年に戻して欲しいですね。まんま戻せという意味では無く、あくまでもアプローチのベースを。
    2016の目標を打撃部門の全ての項目のキァリアハイに置いてる感じの坂本。もちろん結果的にそうなれば最高ですが…気持ち的には一つずつ行って欲しいなと。
    最優先課題は…確率。打率、得点圏のアップ。
    HR数は、極端な話…15〜20でOK派です、私。
    結果的に、率さえ上がれば、HR数も自ずと付いてくるタイプの選手だと思う。坂本が追い求める方向性は…堅実さ。
    その点、長野の場合…坂本とは真逆。
    バッティングの中身は大雑把に映る長野だが…
    真面目さ故、小手先のバッティングに逃げてしまいガチというか、すぐ右打ちに頼り過ぎる傾向があるような。
    彼のリスト、スイングスピードを持ってして、年間のHR数が明らかに少な過ぎる。リストを利かして引っ張り切る意識…
    坂本とは相反して、長打狙いのアプローチの先に、単打は後から付いてくるイメージが欲しいなと。
    長打を意識するアプローチに変えた方が、むしろボール球に食い付く悪癖も軽減すると思うけどなぁ〜。
    脱マジメな長野を切望してる。

  226. 伊予之鈍才 より:

    更新ご苦労様です。豪華客船瀬戸内パイレーツ1世号を造りたい。伊予之鈍才です。僕も
    感じていることを的確に言い表した内容まさにその通り。しかも年に数試合しか見たことないけどやっぱり143試合殆ど同じ調子なのでしょうね?阿部の厳しさに答えて漢になれるか?今年の見所はたまた新人たちの新鮮旋風難しいかもしれませんが十分あるかもしれません!誰が力になるか?楽しみです。密かに新人パワーを期待するのは間違いでしょうか?でも期待せずにはいれない。みんな頑張れ!新居浜太鼓台祭もよろしくお願いいたします。

  227. 名無しの兎 より:

    お疲れ様です
    坂本に関しても長野に関しても同意見ですね
    まず坂本に関しては、彼は数年前から右方向への打撃に拘って取り組んでいましたが、彼の独楽のような回転によって飛距離を出すフォームは右方向へ大きな強い打球を飛ばすには不向きです(逆に思い切り引っ張るのには適しています)
    よって、もう割り切ってプルヒッターとしての道に回帰する方が良いと思います
    別にレフト前だろうがライト前だろうがヒットはヒット、どこのスタンドに放り込んでもホームランなのですから
    松井秀喜にしても前田智徳にしても、プルヒッターはプルヒッターのまま大成するものです
    「じゃあ外角どうすんの」となりますが、届くようにすれば良いのですよね
    長いバットを使ってスイングが崩れるのなら筆者さんの言う通りベースに近付いて立てば良いのです
    それこそ外角だろうが全部巻き込んでレフト方向へ打つつもりで
    それができる天賦の才があるのですから
    また、長野に関しては、そもそも彼がベースから離れて立つのは内角が苦手だからでも外角が得意だからでもなく、「外へ逃げるボール球の変化球を振ってしまうから」だったはずです
    現状離れてても振ってしまっているのですから、筆者さんの言う通り普通の場所に立った方が届く範囲が広がってむしろ良いと思います
    内角打てるんですから
    しかも彼は坂本とは逆にリストの強さがあるのでライト方向へ強い打球を打てるのですからね