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2016巨人キャンプレポート(2月17日)&今季のG先発投手陣を妄想する

巨人の沖縄キャンプ2日目は暖かい日差しに恵まれ、袖をまくって練習している選手もチラホラ見受けられた。

2月17日 巨人沖縄キャンプ 2日目

【気候】 晴れ 16℃ 風速4m (正午)

【練習メニュー】
DSC_0585

明日から対外試合がスタートするので、フリーバッティングに投手は登板しなかった。

【内野シートノック】

軽快な動きを見せる阿部
DSC_0586

キャッチャー 阿部・小林・鬼屋敷・河野
ファースト  ギャレット・中井・和田
セカンド   クルーズ・片岡
サード    村田・岡本
ショート   坂本・吉川

【フリーバッティング】

☆阿部慎之助
DSC_0588

トップを作る際に高く上げていた右足は、あまり上げずに摺り足に近い。
よって体の上下動が減ってボールをしっかり捉える確率は上がる。
又、バックスイングがかなり小さいので、バッティングの「間」を作りにくい形には見えるが、そこは体の中心軸を左足になるべく長く乗せて「間」を作ろうとしている。
つまり、上半身の意識は「振り始めからインパクトの瞬間だけ」で「始動からトップまでの意識は下半身に集中させている」
これによって中心軸のブレも少ない。
一方でフォロースルーを大きくとる事で、打球の力強さを失わないようにしている。
理論的には何の文句も無いし、この形を自分のモノに出来れば相当な数字が期待出来る。

だが、ここで問題になるのは「このバッティングフォームで結果を残すだけの体力が彼にあるのか?」という事。
少なくとも去シーズンの阿部の体力(筋力・瞬発力)では相当難しいと見ているし、加齢と共に衰えてしまう動体視力も問題になってくる。
やはり「今のスイングスピードで140キロ後半の直球に対応出来るのか?」
ここは正直言って疑問を感じる。
そして、ここを過剰に意識してしまうと、バッティングの形が崩れてしまう可能性が高い。

普通に考えれば、阿部の体力が劇的に向上するとは思えないので、個人的にはキャリアハイ並みの成績を期待するのは難しいと見ているし、個人的には、一昨年から現在までの衰えていく過程が前ホークスの松中と同じような印象を受けている(松中は阿部以上に怪我で苦しんでいたが。。)

勿論、筆者は阿部にもう一花(3割20本程度)咲いて欲しいし、年齢的にも可能性が全く無い訳ではない。
しかし冷静に考えれば、100試合スタメンでマスクを被って、成績は2割8分15本程度の数字が現実的な結果だと思っている。
その数字の中で、少しでも多くの打点を稼ぎ、勝負処での一撃で勝利に大きく貢献し、チームを優勝に導く。
「これも立派なもう一花」だと思う。

【2016巨人先発投手陣を妄想する】

ここ最近、記事の内容が被るケースが増えてきたので、今回は2016年の巨人投手陣を考えていきたい。
尚、以前の打撃陣編でも同じ前置きをしたがここから筆者が妄想する構想は、来年以降(近未来)の懸念を一切無視したものであり、あくまでも今年優勝する為のモノである事を前提としている」
又、筆者が本意とする構想は別にあるが、そこを合わせて考えていくと解りにくい文章になるので、それについては別の機会で触れていく。

☆今季の投手陣容 ✳支配下選手で今季の1軍登板が有力視される投手
先発(右) 菅野・マイコラス・高木勇・大竹・桜井・小山・(西村?)・(マシソン?)
先発(左) 内海・ポレダ・田口・今村・(杉内)
中継(右) (マシソン?)・宮國・田原・土田・矢貫・香月・江柄子・メンドーサ・(西村?)
中継(左) 山口・戸根・高木京・公文・中川
抑え     澤村

先発に関しては、個人的には「全ての投手が開幕からエンジン全開になる必要はない」と考えているが、年間通して軸として君臨せねばならない投手は菅野と内海である。
近年不振が続いている内海については異論があるかもしれないが、杉内が股関節の手術明けで今季の登板の目処は立っていない状況なので、例年以上に彼にかかる比重は大きい。
この二人で貯金が10作れれば最低でも上位争い、15以上作れれば高確率で優勝するだろう。
そして二人の貯金をベースに、外国人勢(マイコラスとポレダ、先発起用?のマシソン)が何処まで貯金を上乗せできるか?
このように考えていかないと、今季の先発ローテーションは構築できない。

一方で、彼らに続く他の日本人先発候補の頑張りも欠かせない。
高木勇、大竹、田口、桜井、この辺りが先発の5~6番手を争う事になるが、現状では四者共に課題を抱えている。
まず故障で出遅れている大竹については、元々年間通して活躍するタフさはない。
高木勇は去年序盤は大活躍していたが、後半戦以降は急激に勝てなくなってしまった。
田口も決して内容は悪くなかったが、80球を越えた辺りから急激に投球が乱れてしまっていた。
桜井に関してはルーキーなので、そもそも計算しづらい。

このように、彼らの置かれている現状を冷静に考えれば、彼ら自身の力だけで多くの貯金を作れるとは到底思えず、やはり軸となる前述の菅野・内海と外国人勢が彼らを引っ張る形にならないと3連戦で勝ち越す形は作れない。

では、筆者が頭に描いている今季の構想は?

☆開幕から交流戦直前までの先発ローテーション
菅野、内海、ポレダ、田口、桜井
(マシソン?、マイコラス、高木勇、今村、小山) この中から1人。
当面は成長著しい田口と、相手にデータが無い桜井を軸に入れる。
残りの1枠は高木勇が有力だが、マイコラスの状態が上がってこなければ、マシソンにもチャンスを与えたい。
それ以外の投手についてはオープン戦の内容次第でチャンスが出てくる。

☆交流戦からオールスター戦まで
菅野、内海、マ
イコラス
(田口、桜井、マシソン?、ポレダ、高木勇、大竹、今村。小山) この中から3人。
そろそろマイコラスの体調が良くると思うので軸に据えたい。
ポレダとマシソンは外国人枠の関係で流動的になる。
田口と桜井は相手球団のデータが揃い始めて苦戦する可能性が高くなるので、大竹・今村・小山にもチャンスが出てくる。
特にベテランの大竹にはここで活躍して欲しい。

☆オールスター戦からシーズン終盤まで
菅野、内海、マイコラス
(田口、桜井、マシソン?、ポレダ、高木勇、大竹、今村) この中から3人。
ここまでの内容を見て、勝負の夏場に向けてローテーションを組むだろう。
あとは杉内と西村(先発起用の場合)が夏場に復活出来るか?
特に杉内が戦力になるなら非常に大きい。

以上を踏まえて、主な先発候補に対する今現在の筆者の評価は?
菅野→ルーキーイヤー時に感じた威圧感が復活、期待以上の状態。
内海→自主トレで肩を痛めて心配していたが、全ては明日の登板を見てから。
マイコラス→離脱は想定していたので驚きはない、二桁勝って貯金3つ作れれば。。
ポレダ→今のところ目立った進化は感じない。相手に研究されてどこまで結果を残せるか?
高木勇→現状のままなら今季は苦戦必至だろう。
田口→若手の中では頭一つ抜け出しつつある。一方で課題のスタミナはどうなのか?
大竹→故障で出遅れたので、開幕ローテーション入りは難しくなった。
今村→現状、ライバル田口にはやや劣っている感があるが、実戦で結果を残したい。
桜井→Cアップとスプリットは決め球として使えるので、それを活かすも殺すも直球次第。
マシソン→彼の代役(セットアッパー)が見つかればよいが、先発ならマイコラスのスペアか?

やはり、厳しめに評価すれば菅野以外は全く計算できない。
去年の先発投手陣はセリーグでNO1の結果を残したが、今年はかなり不安定な部分が見え隠れしている。
この不安を払拭するには、明日登板する内海に素晴らしい投球内容を見せてもらうほかない。
そして記事の前段で書いたように、菅野と二人で投手陣全体を引っ張って、個々に掛かるプレッシャーを少しでも軽減させて欲しい。

明日の内海には要注目である。

以上 敬称略

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  402. サザエさんちのタマ より:

    更新お疲れさまです。
    キャンプレポートいつも拝読しております。
    阿部の捕手復帰、及び打撃に対する見立ては
    筆者さまに全く同感です。
    捕手で出るのなら6,7番に置いて返すバッティングに
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    そうなるとやはり問題になるのがギャレットの出来です。
    彼が4番でそれなりの成績を上げてくれればいいですが
    そうでない場合結局消去法で阿部が4番を打たざるを
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    クルーズがシーズン通して4番を打てるとは思えません。
    投手に関しては何としても内海の復活。
    後は田口がローテーションに入ってくれることを
    期待しています。

  403. borderless より:

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  404. 伊予之鈍才 より:

    更新ご苦労様です。豪華客船瀬戸内パイレーツ1世号を造りたい。伊予之鈍才です。菅野以外は手探り状態。一年で大きな成長を期待しては可哀想。やっぱり内海に嫌が上にも期待してしまう。明日から本当の判断のデータが得られる。立岡と重信で攻撃の形を作れるかが問題いかに好機を作れるか?あとクルーズを何番に入れるか?気になる。投打が噛み合えばつられてみんな成長する。みんな頑張れ!新居浜太鼓台祭もよろしくお願いいたします。

  405. pug より:

    更新お疲れ様です。
    阿部については全盛期が凄すぎただけで、捕手として試合に出て2割8分20本なら完璧な数字ですよね。
    ただやはり軸足を意識しながらスイングスピードで対応するバッティングは体力面の不安がありますよね。
    その為にも何とか6,7番くらいで、ここ一番のバッティングに期待する形にしてあげたいですね。
    投手陣については、どのチームも不安を抱えている状態だと思うので、去年以上に接戦になるかなという感じはありますね。
    今年は何とか伸び悩んでいる小山や今村にも頑張って欲しいところですね。