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2016プロ野球順位予想

昨日でオープン戦の全日程が終了し、今週金曜日からいよいよ2016年プロ野球ペナントレースが開幕する。
そこで今回は恒例のプロ野球順位予想を行っていく。

※各部門のランク付けは5段階(A~E)

【セリーグ先発投手】※基準は去年の巨人と広島A評価

東京ヤクルトスワローズ D 館山が計算出来れば評価は一気に上がる
★鍵を握る選手 館山・杉浦

読売ジャイアンツ    B 後半戦に故障者が復帰すれば混戦制すか?
★鍵を握る選手 内海・田口

阪神タイガース     B 能見・岩田で貯金が出来れば一気に浮上も
★鍵を握る選手 藤川・能見

広島東洋カープ     C 大瀬良の復帰まで我慢できれば上位浮上も
★鍵を握る選手 岡田・福井

中日ドラゴンズ     C 山井が計算出来ればAクラスも
★鍵を握る選手 山井・ネイラー

横浜DeNAベイスターズ   D 山口が躍進すれば一気に台風の目になる。
★鍵を握る選手 山口・井納

☆最多勝投手予想  1位小川 2位菅野 3位藤浪
理由<打線の援護が期待出来る小川が優勢

☆最優秀防御率予想 1位菅野 2位ジョンソン 3位藤浪
理由<安定感では菅野とジョンソンが双璧

【セリーグ中継ぎ・抑え投手】※基準は去年のヤクルトA評価

東京ヤクルトスワローズ B バーネットの抜けた穴はどうなのか?
★鍵を握る選手 久古

読売ジャイアンツ    B 田原は勝ちパターンでも使える
★鍵を握る投手 澤村

阪神タイガース     C マテオ次第で投手編成は大きく変わる
★鍵を握る選手 マテオ

広島東洋カープ     D 中継ぎの質・量ともに不安あり
★鍵を握る選手 ジャクソン

中日ドラゴンズ     D 福谷が復調すれば評価は一変する
★鍵を握る選手 福谷

横浜DeNAベイスターズ   D 抑え万全でもセットアッパーは?
★鍵を握る選手 三上

☆最優秀ホールド予想 1位秋吉 2位マシソン 3位福原
理由<若さとタフさで秋吉が最上位

☆最優秀セーブ予想  1位山崎 2位澤村 3位中崎
理由<安定感では山崎に勝る抑えはいない

【セリーグ打撃部門】※基準は去年のヤクルトA評価

東京ヤクルトスワローズ A バレンティン復帰は諸刃の剣
★鍵を握る選手 バレンティン・畠山

読売ジャイアンツ    C 四番ギャレットが機能しないと貧打再現
★鍵を握る選手 ギャレット・坂本勇人

阪神タイガース     C 若手の躍進はどこまで続くのか?
★鍵を握る選手 ヘイグ・横田

広島東洋カープ     C 去年低迷した菊丸コンビの再躍進は?
★鍵を握る選手 菊地・丸

中日ドラゴンズ     D ビシエド次第で大きく変わる
★鍵を握る選手 ビシエド・大島

横浜DeNAベイスターズ  B 主力が怪我せず年間通して出場出来るか?
★鍵を握る選手 梶谷・ロマック

☆首位打者予想 1位筒香 2位川端 3位山田
理由<勝負避けて歩かさせる可能性が大きい筒香が有利

☆本塁打王予想 1位山田 2位バレンティン 3位筒香
理由<ヤクルト勢の優位は揺るがない

☆打点王 1位バレンティン 2位山田 3位畠山
理由<川端・山田の出塁率が高いのでヤクルト勢で固い

【セリーグ守備部門】 基準は去年のヤクルトと巨人A評価

東京ヤクルトスワローズ B バレンティンの出場数が多くなると?

読売ジャイアンツ    B クルーズ・ギャレットの守備力が課題

阪神タイガース     C 外野は強化されたがヘイグのサードは穴

広島東洋カープ     B イージーミスを減らしたい

中日ドラゴンズ     C 外野の守備力高いが内野は?

横浜DeNAベイスターズ   D ロマックに不安、内野のミスも目立つ

【セリーグ走塁部門】 基準は去年の巨人A評価

東京ヤクルトスワローズ B 今年も二番川端なら機動力が使える

読売ジャイアンツ    B 外国人が増えれば機動力は使いにくい

阪神タイガース     C 横田の出場数が増えれば大きく変わる

広島東洋カープ     C 菊丸の出塁率が上がれば。。。

中日ドラゴンズ     C 大島が一番で固定されれば。。

横浜DeNAベイスターズ   C 監督次第で一気に変わる可能性も。。

以上を踏まえて筆者が出したセリーグ順位予想は以下の通り(右数字は優勝する確率)

1位 読売ジャイアンツ      25%
2位 東京ヤクルトスワローズ   25%
3位 阪神タイガース       25%
4位 横浜DeNAベイスターズ     10%
5位 広島東洋カープ       10%
6位 中日ドラゴンズ        5% 

1位予想の巨人については、去年のように貧打になった場合は、今年の先発投手陣では踏ん張りきれないので、優勝争いから脱落してBクラス転落も十分にある。
それでも1位にした理由は、混戦になった場合に消耗戦で勝る事。
野手に関しては決して層が厚いとは思わないが、投手力に関しては故障でリハビリ中の選手を含めて、やはり他球団よりも層は厚い。

2位予想のヤクルトについては、ルーキーの原が期待できそうなので、去年のように館山が良ければ強力打線を背景に上位争いは固い。

3位予想の阪神に関しては、オープン戦で結果を出した若手野手が、本番でも活躍できれば混戦を抜け出すかもしれないが、彼らが結果を残せなかった場合は、一気に貧打に陥る危険性がある。
こうなった場合、例年通り終盤に失速する可能性が高い。

4位予想のDeNAは、野手で怪我人が出ない事が大前提で、その上で山口が大躍進すれば去年のヤクルトのように一気に頂点に立つ可能性も否定できない。

5位予想の広島は、前田が抜けた穴は確かに大きいが、それ以上に大瀬良が故障で出遅れてしまったのが痛い。
仮に、彼の復帰が遅れてしまうと、黒田で大きく貯金する事(去年は3つ)が必須になる。
その為には、打線が去年と同じ状態では難しいので、打線の援護が必要になってくる。

6位の中日は、明らかにチームが過渡期で、今年はチーム力を底上げする一年になると思う。
それでも他球団も決め手に欠けてるので、去年は大不振に陥った抑えの福谷が仕事をして、更に四番のビシエドが大爆発すれば、大混戦から抜け出す可能性もゼロではない。

最後にパリーグの順位予想を簡潔に行う

1位 福岡ソフトバンクホークス
2位 オリックスバファローズ
3位 千葉ロッテマリーンズ
4位 埼玉西武ライオンズ
5位 東北楽天ゴールデンイーグルス
6位 北海道日本ハムファイターズ

以上 敬称略

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    更新ご苦労様です。豪華客船瀬戸内パイレーツ1世号を造りたい。伊予之鈍才です。巨人の評価は明日からの3連戦をみてからいやDeNA戦終わってからですね。阪神が一位でヤクルトが二位で三位が広島かDeNAで六位は中日。巨人はこの6連戦でピッチャーがどれだけ頑張れて打線がどう機能するか?でどこに入るかが決まる。ファンなので一位を予想したいがワンランクもツーランクも上へいっとほしいのでようすを見ます。みんな頑張れ!新居浜太鼓台祭もよろしくお願いいたします。

  467. borderless より:

    こんにちは。今季のセ・リーグは多くのベテランが引退や事実上戦力外的扱いでどの球団も未知数の若手と外国人の活躍次第で順位が大きく変わりそうです。昨年優勝したヤクルトも打線が強力と言われながらチーム打率は2割6分にも満たず、投高打低の様相は変わらないと思われるので、やはり最後は投手力を含めた守備の差で決まりそうですけど。ただ本塁でのクロスプレイが激減しそうなので打率的には変わらずとも各チームの得点力は上がると思われ、そうであれば尚更本塁への突入を少しでも諦めさせる「守備力」が重要になってくるかも知れません。投手力で予想するならどのチームも先発・リリーフでの一長一短があるとはいえ現状似たりよったりと思われ、極論ですがエース以外でほぼ5割の戦績になればエースの差で分かれると仮定した場合、巨人・阪神・ヤクルトが年間活躍した実績のある若いエースを有している事から有利にペナントレースを展開出来るのではないかとも言えます。それに加えリリーフ陣を考慮すれば巨人・阪神が若干?抜き出る可能性があるかも?という処でしょうか。もし打力で他を圧倒する事があるとすればクリーンアップが年間通して活躍出来そうな横浜も悪くないと思われますが、打力で圧倒するチームが優勝するには過去の例からリリーフ陣が余程磐石でないと難しいというのがありますけどね。ヤクルトの打線はレギュラーが年間通して離脱しなければ当然最強なのですが、昨年こそ上位がモタついたお陰で終盤バレンティン・ミレッジ選手以外珍しく揃った事で破壊力を維持して優勝出来たもののその差は貧打の巨人とは2勝差で、一昨年迄の事を見れば今季も故障なくとは考え難い処がありますね。まあ中日・広島もレギュラーの故障・絶不調がなければ5割を維持する戦力は充分ありますし、混戦になれば巷の予想通りどこが優勝してもおかしくないとは思います。巨人のみのお話としては、今更ながら大田選手に敢えて期待したいですね。速球狙いのみで打率が2割5分以下でも安打の殆どが長打で本塁打20本以上だったりすれば巨人の救世主?・・・になってくれたりすれば面白いんですけど、それにはまずレギュラーで出続けないといけないですけどね。パ・リーグはソフトバンクがやはり強そうですけど、金子投手が復活しそうなオリックス、大谷投手を擁する日本ハムがどれだけソフトバンクについていけるかかも知れません。

  468. vick より:

    今年のこの薄すぎる戦力で優勝したら
    それはそれでリーグとして異常な気も…
    まあ、去年もあの歴史的貧打で、一瞬勝ちかけましたが…
    なんか近年は他球団も含めて貧弱なオーダーですね。
    野手の小粒化による貧打リーグ化してます。
    個人的には嫌いじゃない選手ですが、例に出すと重信とか、ちょっと前の巨人じゃどうみても2軍だと思います。
    オコエとかロッテの名前忘れたけど、ドラ1の子とかも一緒です。
    一時期の原巨人、落合中日、岡田阪神の、ドロドロしたスリリングな3強時代が懐かしいです…
    あの頃はどこも打線に迫力があって面白かったです。
    とにかく声を大にして言いたいのは、高校野球みたいな1、2番だけは(立岡、重信とか)やめてほしいです。
    あまりに小粒です、まあ肝心のクリーンアップもですが…
    1番が出て、2番がバントするだけの野球は去年で嫌気がさすほど見せられたので、ガチで勘弁です。
    こんな野球(去年のオフェンス)にエンターテイメントを感じますか?
    正直死ぬほどつまらなかったです。
    裏で何してようが個人的には全く興味もないですが、グラウンド上だけでは、もう少しプロらしいエンターテイメントをみせて欲しいですね。
    もっというなら去年みたいな野球とオーダーで勝ち負けするぐらいなら、今年は勝たなくていいです、個人的には。
    そうガチで思うほど、去年の巨人の野球は異常に嫌いでつまらなかったです…
    1、立岡
    2、坂本
    3、長野
    4、大田完全固定(笑)
    5、ギャレ
    6、クルーズ
    7、岡本
    8、小林
    1年間このオーダー見せてくれるなら
    おねーちゃんとのデートキャンセルして毎試合絶対観ます(笑)
    大田なら、デッカイパイオツ…じゃなくて、デっカイ夢のあるホームランをたまには魅せてくれる…
    彼のホームランにこそエンターテイメントの真髄がつまっている…

    キモいくらいの大田推しコメント
    失礼しました。

  469. BH より:

    こちらでは初めてコメントさせていただきます。
    順位予想だけでなく、タイトル予想まできましたか。
    私も近日中に順位予想はやろうと思っていますが(もう結論は出しています)、基準はリリーフ陣の力量においています。・・・とはいえ、これは怪我とか意外な台頭などで変わってくるので、現時点ではなかなか把握しがたいかなと思っていますが・・・。

    ところで、さっきまで寝てる間に各球団ニュースがたくさん出てきてますね。ちょっとびっくりしました。「新種」まで出てる・・・(苦笑)

  470. pug より:

    更新お疲れ様です。
    今年のセ・リーグは、全てのチームが戦力ダウンしている印象なので、まったく予想がつかないほど分からない展開になりそうですね。
    結局、既存戦力が怪我なく、予想できる成績を出しつつ、新戦力が一番働いた球団が優勝するような気がしています。
    巨人としては、開幕で戦力が出揃って居ないので、最初の内は勝てる試合は確実に勝って、最低でも5割近辺をキープしつつ、戦力が揃ってきてから、一気にスパートして欲しいですね。
    パ・リーグの方はソフトバンクという強力な軸がある中で、その他のチームは不安要素を抱えているので、こちらも新鮮力の活躍が鍵を握りそうですね。
    筆者さんが2位予想のオリックスだけは、去年働けなかった大型補強組の復活にかかっている気がしますが。
    日ハムの最下位予想は大谷以外の投手陣(リリーフ含め)の不安が大きいですかね?
    また更新楽しみにしています。

  471. なにわの巨人ふぁん より:

    更新お疲れさまです。分野ごとに戦力分析していだくと、非常にわかりやすく説得力がありますね。
    私もこの時期、友人と順位予想をやりますが、当たった試しがありません。だからこそ面白いのですが・・・。
    セは巨人、と言いたいところですが、予想は阪神です。リリーフ以外の不安要素が少ないことと、ムードが良い気がします。この予想を巨人が底力で覆してほしいです。
    ちなみに、パリーグが少し意外ですね。ソフトバンクの一位は誰しもそうだと思いますが、日ハムはもう少し下馬評は高いですよね?ちなみに私はオリックス最下位予想でした。お時間があられたら、簡単に理由などを教えていただけたらと思います。
    いよいよ開幕が近いですが、高橋新監督がどんな戦いを見せてくれるか、楽しみつつ、また辛抱強く応援したいです。