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巨人優勝の青写真 (投手編)

今回は、筆者が描く「巨人優勝の青写真」を発表したい。
相変わらずの「筆者の妄想ぶり」に、読者の皆さんからお叱りを受けるかもしれないが、一応、先日の順位予想で「巨人優勝」を予想した理由として御覧頂ければ幸いである。

~2016年 読売ジャイアンツ投手陣~

【先発候補】
菅野、ポレダ、高木、田口、桜井、今村 ←当面はこの四名か?
内海、マイコラス、大竹、杉内、西村?、小山 ←不調、リハビリ組

現在、不調や故障リハビリ中の選手を含めればこんな感じになるが、これに若手成長株の平良が台頭してくるのか?
どちらにしろ今季の先発陣は補強がない限り、上記のメンバーで構成される。

【中継ぎ・抑え候補】

マシソン、山口、戸根、田原 ←軸となる中継ぎは四名
澤村  ←抑えとして確定

土田、矢貫、宮國、香月、西村?、公文、江柄子、メンドーサ
上記の選手が主なリリーフ役の候補になる。

以上がおおまかな投手構成になる。

【理想的な先発ローテと投手編成】
年間通してローテーションを絶対に守って欲しいのは菅野とポレダ
ポレダに関しては、マイコラスのメドが立っていない状況では、絶対に欠かせない柱になった。
幸い、彼の状態は非常に良いので、菅野と並んで二人で勝ちを拾っていく形に持っていきたい。

そして高木、田口、桜井も出来ればイニングイーター役として勝率5割を目安にして踏ん張って欲しい。

~開幕時~
☆先発ローテ 菅野、ポレダ、高木、田口、桜井、今村
★中継ぎの軸 マシソン、山口、戸根、田原
★抑え    澤村

当面は六人目の先発として今村に頑張ってもらうしかない。

~交流戦開始~
☆先発ローテ 菅野、ポレダ、高木、田口、桜井、今村、(内海)
★中継ぎの軸 マシソン、山口、戸根、田原
★抑え    澤村

この頃までに内海の調子が上がってくれば、状態が悪い若手を一度ファームに落とす手もあるので、これまでに内海は何とか調子を上げて欲しい。

~交流戦直後~
☆先発ローテ 菅野、ポレダ、(高木、田口、桜井、内海、今村、大竹)
★中継ぎの軸 マシソン、山口、戸根、田原
★抑え    澤村

交流戦終了からリーグ戦再開まで四日の間が空くので、ここで先発ローテを再編出来る。
高木・田口・桜井に疲れが見られるようなら、このタイミングで大竹の復活に期待したい。
そして、今村にもう一度チャンスを与えても良い。

~オールスター直後~
☆先発ローテ 菅野、ポレダ、(マイコラス、内海、田口、桜井、今村、大竹)
★中継ぎの軸 山口、田原、戸根、(西村、高木、マシソン)
★抑え    澤村

ここでもオールスター期間中に先発ローテを再編出来るチャンスがあるが、この辺りでマイコラス復活のメドが立っているとかなり楽になる。
但し、彼を一軍に登録することは、外国人選手を一人外さねばならなくなる。
この場合は判断が非常に難しくなるが、マシソンしか選択肢はないかもしれない。

やはり、現状のG打線を考えると、ギャレットとクルーズは外せないし、仮に両名が打撃不振に陥った場合は、シーズン途中に新外国人を補強せねば厳しくなる(又は故障明けのアンダーソンを起用する)
阿部の状態も良くないので、外国人野手の登録を去年のように一人にする事も難しい。

それでもリリーフ陣の軸として期待しているマシソンを外す事は容易な決断ではないが、何とか彼のポジションを急成長している田原が担って欲しい。
そして、田原のポジションには本来なら宮國に頑張って欲しかったが、仮にダメなら西村の復活に期待したい。
それも難しければ、高木の配置転換が最終手段になる。
高木は確かにボールが高めに集まる傾向が強いが、短いイニングでは140キロ後半のボールを投げる「瞬発力」はあるので、意外に適役になるかもしれない。

~勝負の夏場から終盤戦~
☆先発ローテ 菅野、(ポレダ、マイコラス、内海、田口、桜井、大竹、今村、杉内)
★中継ぎの軸 山口、田原、戸根、(西村、高木、マシソン)
★抑え    澤村

ここからは状態の良い投手を「物量作戦」で使っていくしかない。
恐らく、今年も打線が弱いので、少ない得点を守り抜く策を考えねばならないだろう。
一方で、リリーフ陣(特に田原、戸根辺り)の疲れが限界に達し、試合終盤の継投が不安定になる事が予想される。
そうなると、マイコラスかポレダのどちらかを一軍登録から外して、代わりにマシソンを登録し、リリーフ陣を磐石な体制にする方を優先するしかない。

そして、ここで杉内が長いリハビリを経て、先発投手として華麗に復活してくれると、Gにとっては理想的な形になる。
勿論、それと同時に、他の先発投手が何とか試合中盤までは少ない失点で凌いで、強力リリーフ陣に繋ぐ形を作らないと、この構想は絵に描いた餅になる。

最後に、昨日のパリーグ順位予想でオリックスを2位にした理由と、日本ハムを最下位にした理由について、コメンターの皆さんから問い合わせがあったので発表したい。

オリックス2位の理由
①投手陣は金子とディクソンの二枚看板がリーグ屈指
②ルーキー近藤大亮は新人王が狙える器
③抑えのゴーディエも期待できる
④打線もルーキー吉田と新外国人の二人の加入で高いレベルでの競争が激しくなった

日本ハム最下位の理由
これについては明確な理由は無いが、オープン戦を見る限り、怪我で出遅れていた選手が投打で多いし、更に言えば怪我をしやすい体質の選手が多く見られる事(陽岱鋼、岡、西川、浅間など)
又、新外国人を含む新戦力が、上位予想のチームと比べるとインパクトに欠ける。

以上 敬称略

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    最新の打者編とは題材が違いますので、敢えてこちらに書かせていただきます。
    ローテが報道どおりだと、菅野‐高木‐田口、ポレダ‐桜井‐今村となりそうです。
    個人的な感想として、二戦目は田口投手でよいのでは?と思うのですが、いかがでしょうか?左右ジグザグに拘る必要性は感じませんし、高木投手へのチームの期待感も理解できます。が、初戦の菅野投手と同じようなタイプで、しかもコントロールなどが下回る投手を二戦目に持っていくのは、どうかと思うのですが・・・。田口投手が三戦目の方がリリーフ陣をつぎ込みやすいのもわかりますが、しばらく同じローテで回るのだとすれば、高木投手が常に菅野投手の後の試合で投げるのは、少しリスクがある気がします。実際どうなるかはまだわかりませんが。

  465. borderless より:

    こんにちは。セ・リーグは現状抜き出る戦力を持ったチームがなさそうなので、巨人の優勝というのも可能性は大いにあるでしょうけど、未知数の若手や外国人頼みでどこ迄確率を上げられるかですね。外国人投手ですが、マシソン投手はリリーフ専念であれば余程四球乱発か打たれ捲る試合が続かない限りシーズン通して外せないと思われます。マイコラス投手が復帰した際、ポレダ投手とマイコラス投手を交互に登録を外して2人でローテーションを守らせるというのであれば実質中5~6日で登板可能でしょうし、少しでも調子が悪くなればそちらを暫く外してというのを繰り返すのも一策かも知れません。まあどちらも昨季並以上の状態なら勿体無いんですけど。クルーズ・ギャレット選手は阿部・村田選手が往年に近い感じで打ち出してくれれば調子次第では無理に1軍に置く必要もないと思われますが、そんな好都合は到底期待出来ないですしね。高木・田口投手はローテーション通りに投げられても勝敗は良くて5分くらいと今は見るべきでしょうし、桜井・今村投手は内海・大竹投手等の状態次第で余程良い戦績を収め続けないと即入れ替えかも知れません。個人的に今村投手は笠原・高木・宮國投手らに代わりロングリリーフ専門にした方が良いのではと思います。因みに内海投手は阪急で活躍した星野投手のように遅い速球でもより速く見せられる投球パターン、若しくは新たな決め球になる変化球でも持たないと今迄のスタイルではにわかでも復活が難しい気がしてます。杉内投手は回復しても今季中1軍では投げない方が良いのかも知れません。退団した久保投手同様の故障ですしね。いずれにせよ開幕前の現状で今季の巨人は菅野投手頼み、彼が投げる試合で貯金12~15以上出来ればかなり優勝へ近付くでしょうね。

  466. nakaji より:

    開幕前日、お邪魔します。

    最後辺りに仰っている「高木の配置転換案」…大賛成ですね。現状のスターター事情もあり現実的では無い事は百も承知。ただ長〜い目で見た場合、彼の能力がより生きるポジションはブルペンの方かなと個人的には思ってます。

    ブルペン方面で言えば…育成の田中太一

    支配下を経て、夏場以降トップチームのブルペンに抜擢されて大化けするんじゃないかと期待してます。

    野手編では…

    橋本の逆襲。その想いにブレはありません。

    必ずや…彼は来る。

  467. ジャイアンヒロセ より:

    管理人さんお邪魔します。
    マイコラスが復帰した際の外国人枠の問題は非常に悩ましいですね。
    昨年までは打線に外国人が1人だけでしたが,今年はギャレ・クルの2人は余程の不振でないと外せない(2人に期待するしかない?)ですよね。
    そうするとマシソンということになりますか。
    マイコラスとポレダとマシソンを10日に1回(登録再登録の繰り返し)で回すなんてことは現実的ではないですよね。
    先発も中継ぎも若手のさらなる台頭が必要ですね。
    内海・大竹はじっくり調整してもらって,出てきた時には貯金を作れるような活躍をして欲しいものです。
    杉内・西村は決して無理はせずに万全な状態に仕上げて夏場過ぎの大事な時期にでも出てきてくれればいいですね。
    先発・中継ぎどちらでも使える西村が復活すれば大きいですね。

    管理人さんまたよろしくお願いします!

  468. pug より:

    更新お疲れ様です。
    開幕直後は投手陣のやりくりも苦労しそうですが、尾花コーチといえば中継ぎ陣を限界まで使う傾向があると思うので、マシソンを先発調整させて力を抜く投法を覚えさせたのが、勝てそうな試合では、マシソンをガンガン使っていくんではないかと、ふと思いました。
    それで、マイコラスの復帰と共にリフレッシュを兼ねて入れ替えがあるのではないかと。
    ただ、成功させるには筆者さんの書かれている通り田原が去年後半か、それ以上に頑張ってくれなければ厳しいですが…
    去年のキャンプ時構想ではあった、高木のリリーフ転向も、代わりの先発が居れば面白いですよね。
    筆者さんが書かれていない中では平良や小山もまだ期待しているんですが…
    パ・リーグのオリックスの2位予想は、去年が負の連鎖で全てが悪かったので、今年が良くなりそうなのは納得です。
    日ハムの下位予想も選手層から見ると、そうですよね。
    ただ、最近は予想外に活躍する選手(去年もレアード等)が出てきて、最下位までは沈まないという印象です。
    明日の野手編も楽しみにしてますね。

  469. なにわの巨人ふぁん より:

    更新お疲れさまです。
    パリーグ予想の件納得です。回答ありがとうございました。それでも誰かが抜ければ他の若手がカバーするというのが日ハムのイメージですね。ジャイアンツもあの育成を真似したいと常々思っています。
    投手陣ですが、昨年本当にリーグ1だったのだろうか?と思ってしまうほど、不安要素がありますね。考えてみれば昨年も全く当初予定通りではなく、新戦力の高木投手や助っ人二人の活躍があってのものだったかと思います。今年も前半は若手や新戦力を思い切って使って、中盤からの勝負どころで内海、大竹、マイコラス投手などが出てきてくれたらと願います。リリーフ陣を含めたやりくりは、実績のある尾花コーチの手腕に期待したいです。書かれているとおり、僅差を守らなければならない試合展開が今年も多そうですね。攻撃陣が目に見えて強化されているとも思えないので、投手を含めた守りと、機動力は昨年同様の力を発揮してほしいものです。