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横浜DeNAベイスターズvs読売ジャイアンツ 三連戦を展望する (3月29日~3月31日)

東京ヤクルトスワローズとの開幕三連戦を三タテし、絶好のスタートを切った読売ジャイアンツ。
そして、今日から横浜DeNAベイスターズと三連戦を行うが、今回は簡単ではあるが、その展望を行っていく。

横浜DeNAベイスターズvs読売ジャイアンツ (3月29日~31日)

【先発予想】

29日 B今永    Gポレダ
30日 Bモスコーソ G桜井
31日 B砂田    G菅野

【展望】

DeNAの新戦力については、下記の過去記事で触れているので参考にして頂きたい。
・2016セリーグ新戦力分析 (横浜DeNAベイスターズ編)

①第一戦(29日)

まず、B先発の今永については、調子が良ければG打線の苦戦は免れないと思う。
但し、比較的ボールが高めに集まる傾向があるので、最もHRが出やすい横浜スタジアムでは、常に一発の危険をはらんでいる。

G打線側から考えると、やはり左投手に強いクルーズにかかる期待が大きい。
つまり、彼の前に走者が貯まる展開が最も望ましい展開と言える。
その場合、左投手に脆さがあるギャレットは厳しいが、長野・立岡・坂本などのチャンスメイクが鍵を握ってくる。

一方で、G先発のポレダに関しては「立ち上がり」が大きなポイントと見ている。
彼が中盤までスイスイ行って接戦に持ち込めば、6~7回辺りで巨人側に大きなチャンスがやって来る。

勝利のキーパーソンはポレダ、クルーズ、坂本、小林

②第二戦(30日)

両軍の投手には申し訳ないが、乱打戦か一方的な展開になると予想している。
但し、第一戦で両軍の打線がチャンスを逃し続けて重苦しい雰囲気になると、この試合でも投手戦になる可能性は否定しない。

投手の力関係では、一昨年のモスコーソの状態に戻っているなら、彼の方が上だと思う。
しかし、現状の状態については懐疑的に見てるので、巨人打線にも十分にチャンスはあると思う。
一方で、桜井に関しては、オープン戦の内容を見る限り、変化球が高めに浮く傾向が強いので、狭い横浜スタジアムでは相手の一発攻勢を受ける危険性がかなり高い。
特に「チェンジアップをどこまで低めに集められるか?」
ここが大きなポイントになる。

勝利のキーパーソンは桜井、長野、立岡、ギャレット

③第三戦(31日)
B先発の砂田に関しては、確かに将来性豊かで、ペースに乗せてしまうと苦戦する可能性は十分にある(実際に去年は苦しめられた)
但し、ここでも左キラーのクルーズの存在は大きく、去年の巨人打線にはない強みであり、他の打者(ギャレットを除く)も第一戦で投げる同じ左腕の今永より「知ってる投手」なので、攻略の難易度はそんなに高くない。

一方で、G先発は中五日で菅野が登板するようだ(今村は開幕三連戦にベンチ入りしていた)
この是非については意見が分かれるとは思うが、今回の主旨とはズレるので詳しくは省略する(個人的には反対)
さて、その菅野に関しては相手打線が云々ではなく、「自身の体調」がポイントになると思う。
やはり「開幕戦の疲れが残っていないか?」、ここだけが気掛かりである。

勝利へのキーパーソンは菅野、長野、坂本、クルーズ

以上 敬称略

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    ハマスタでの横浜戦は打線が強かった時から、打ち合いになる印象が強くて、打線が弱くなってからは、あまり良い印象がないので、不安な方が大きいですね。
    菅野の中5日については、春先からやるのは反対なのですが、首脳陣(尾花コーチですかね)からしたら、エースはなるべく登板数を増やして欲しいという事なんでしょうかね。
    ただ、6連戦が続く中での先発5枚回しは、けっきょく6戦目の先発が居なくなる(外国人とはいえポレダの中4日起用もないと思う)ので、そこをどうするかの課題もありますよね。
    とにかく、今日からの3連戦は投手がなるべく失点を抑えるのは、もちろんですが、打線が援護して欲しいですね。

  483. BH より:

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  484. nakaji より:

    更新お疲れ様です。

    今シリーズ、相手ローテに左2枚…亀井のコンディション次第では、高い確率で大田スタメンあるでしょうね。

    vs石川のようなタイプには、スタメン大田NGの心持ちでしたが…

    クルーズ同様、左に合うアドバンテージを考慮するならば…

    今回の対戦相手に関しては、十分チャンス有り。

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  485. ジャイアンヒロセ より:

    管理人さんお邪魔します。
    まさかの?開幕3連勝は少なくとも私は予想してなかったので,嬉しい誤算でした。
    やはりヨシノブ監督は「持っている」スターですね。
    3試合とも先発陣が踏ん張って試合の主導権を相手に渡さず,打線も効果的なタイムリーで援護しました。
    しかも,両外国人が期待に違わぬ活躍を見せてくれました。
    マシソン・戸根が簡単に失点したり,2番立岡が今イチ機能していないなど心配材料はありますが,まずは素直の喜びたいと思います。
    それにしても,原監督が「動」ならヨシノブ監督は「静」ですね。
    みなさんご指摘のとおり,我慢強さを感じます。
    負けが込んでもバタバタせずに,どっしりと「静」のスタイルを貫いて欲しいですね。
    さて,今日からはハマスタでの3連戦です。
    ベイスターズは昨年同様,対Gには並々ならぬ気迫でぶつかってくると思いますので,気合い負けしないようにG選手諸君には頑張って欲しいものです。
    ヤクルト戦同様,先発陣には何とか踏ん張ってもらい,それを打線が援護するという形になればいいですね。
    亀井の状態次第では大田の起用もあるでしょうか。
    櫻井のデビュー戦も注目ですね。
    ただ管理人さん同様,菅野の中5日は私も反対です。
    今回に限らず,終盤の優勝争いは例外として,個人的には中5日は理想ではあっても反対です。

    管理人さん,またよろしくお願いします。

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