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読売ジャイアンツvs阪神タイガース 三連戦を展望する (4月5日~7日)

開幕から九試合を終えて、七勝二敗というロケットスタートを飾った読売ジャイアンツは、今日から東京ドームに阪神タイガースを迎えて三連戦を行う。

阪神・金本新監督はチームスローガンの「超変革」を掲げて、オープン戦から若手を積極的に起用し、ここまでチームを五勝三敗一分の二位につけているが、ここで巨人の勢いを食い止めておきたいところである。

読売ジャイアンツvs阪神タイガース(4月5日~7日)

【先発予想】

5日 Gポレダ T藤浪
6日 G菅野  T岩田
7日 G平良  Tメッセンジャー

【展望】

阪神の新戦力については下記の過去記事を参考にして頂きたい。

*2016セリーグ新戦力分析 (阪神タイガース編)

*オープン戦 阪神vs巨人 雑感 (2016年3月6日)

①第一戦(5日)

G先発のポレダは、かなりの確率で阪神打線を封じてくれると思う。
去年よりも向上してる制球力と、別人のようなマウンド捌きは本当に素晴らしい。
元々、阪神打線には相性が良いが、去年とは大きくスタメンの顔ぶれが変わってるので、そこは参考にはならないと思う。
しかし、内野陣が守備でミスをしなければ「阪神の若き1・2番(高山・横田)を抑え込む」と見てるので、そうなればポイントゲッターの福留・ゴメスの脅威も半減する。

対して、T先発の藤浪に対して、巨人打線に求めたいのは「立ち上がりから集中して攻撃すること」
藤浪の今季初登板の試合を見た感想としては、現時点では去年のようなボールの切れは無く、相変わらずスライダーと直球系は、抜け気味になるケースが多いので、絶好調時を10とすれば、現状は7~8程度と見ている。
特に彼に感しては序盤の攻撃が鍵になってくると思う。
「初回の攻撃で試合を決めてしまう」くらいの意気込みで集中して欲しい。

予想としては、Gポレダが序盤で大きく崩れるような展開は、個人的には想像できない。
よって、試合序盤で巨人がガッチリ主導権を握れば、巨人有利は動かない。
逆に一点を争う展開で試合後半を迎えると、阪神がやや有利と見ている。

勝利へのキーパーソン ポレダ・マシソン・亀井(堂上)・クルーズ

②第二戦(6日)
G先発はどうやら菅野が再び中五日でマウンドの立つようだ。
前回の登板は筒香に手痛い一発を食らったが、内容的には開幕戦より少し良かった程度で、まだまだ本来の力を出し切っている訳ではない。

個人的に気になってるポイントは以下の二点。
①今季はフォークを殆ど使っていないが、果たして対阪神打線には使ってくるのか?
②まだまだ精度が良くないワンシームを、この試合でも多投するのか?

そして菅野が好投する条件として「1・2番の出塁を許さずにポイントゲッターの福留・ゴメスとの対戦を迎えること」

一方で、巨人打線はT先発・岩田に対しては、ここでも立ち上がりから積極的に仕掛けていって欲しい。
そして、出来れば序盤で大きくリードを奪い、リリーフ陣を休ませる展開が最も望ましい。

勝利へのキーパーソン 菅野・長野・坂本・クルーズ

③第三戦(7日)

G先発は巷の予想では平良が有力視されてるので、それを前提に語っていきたい。

さて、正直言って筆者は「キャンプ紅白戦の平良の投球」を見た時点では「今季中の一軍での先発は難しい」と感じていたので、この起用には大変驚いている。
先日のファームの試合では素晴らしいピッチングをしたようで、それを受けての抜擢だと思うが、果たしてどこまでやれるのか?
若い投手は何処かで一度自信をつけると、そこから一気に開花するというケースを今まで何度も見てきたので、彼も同じように飛躍して欲しい。

しかし、そうは言っても相手のメッセンジャーとの投げ合いでは分が悪い。
番狂わせ的な期待になってしまうが、ここは勝ち負けをあまり考えずに、平良を純粋に応援して行こうと思う。

これで平良がメッセンジャーに投げ勝つような事があれば。。。巨人のロケットスタートが「実は二段ロケットだった」なんていう展開も十分にあるが。。

勝利へのキーパーソン 平良・長野・立岡・ギャレット

巨人側の視点で考えれば、この三連戦は一勝二敗で御の字と考えていると思うが、仮に菅野とポレダの二枚看板でガッチリ勝利を手にしたら、チームの勢いは更に加速していくかもしれない。

以上 敬称略

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